Vietnam’s most powerful and globally minded leader in decades, To Lam, warned Asia’s military leaders on Friday that peace and stability require a renewed focus on economic development, criticizing a world of unchecked competition where “might makes right.”

苏林是越南数十年来权力最大、最具全球视野的领导人，他周五在亚洲各国军事领导人面前发出警告称，要实现和平与稳定就必须重新聚焦经济发展，并批评当今世界充斥着“强权即公理”的无序竞争。

In his keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security forum in Singapore, Mr. Lam stressed that “instability today comes not only from military conflict, but also from disruptions in development.”

在新加坡举行的年度安全论坛香格里拉对话会上发表主旨演讲时，苏林强调：“当今的不稳定性不仅源于军事冲突，还源于发展进程中的断裂。”

Mr. Lam, while careful not to criticize the United States or China directly, acknowledged that a series of threats is making it harder for his country and the region to prosper.

苏林措辞谨慎，未直接批评美国或中国，但承认一系列威胁正使越南及整个地区的繁荣之路愈加艰难。

A global arms race will not make countries more secure, he warned, as he sought to present Vietnam in a new light — not just as a nation of flexible foreign policy, but also as a proactive force in world affairs and a resilient manufacturing hub that aims to shape policy and partnerships across Southeast Asia.

他警告说，全球军备竞赛不会让各国变得更加安全。与此同时，他试图以全新的形象展示越南——不仅是一个奉行灵活外交政策的国家，更是一个积极参与全球事务的力量，以及一个具有韧性的制造业中心，旨在塑造整个东南亚地区的政策与伙伴关系。

“What we need is a development foundation with high resilience to shocks,” he said, adding, “When cooperation provides safety, livelihoods and better living standards for people, strategic trust will be strengthened and nurtured.”

他说，“我们所需要的是一个能够高度抵御冲击的发展基础，”并补充道，“一旦合作能够保障人民的安全与生计，提升人民群众的生活水平，战略互信就将得到巩固和加深。”

Mr. Lam’s half-hour speech, just a few weeks after he officially took on dual roles as chief of Vietnam’s Communist Party and its head of state, marked a high point in his effort to project confidence and preserve the conditions required for what he has described as Vietnam’s “era of national rise.”

苏林正式兼任越共中央总书记与国家主席仅数周，此番长达半小时的演讲是他展现自信、努力维护其所谓越南“民族崛起的时代”所需外部条件的一个重要时刻。

Vietnam needs a stable and peaceful external environment to meet its ambitious economic target of becoming a wealthy nation by 2045, with consistent double-digit rates of growth.

越南需要一个稳定、和平的外部环境，才能实现其雄心勃勃的经济目标——以持续两位数的增长速度，在2045年前跻身富裕国家行列。

“Trade, finance, tariffs, energy, food, data and technology risk being used as tools of pressure,” he said. He stressed that distrust and a lack of respect for established rules has created a culture of “the big fish swallowing the small fish.”

他说，“贸易、金融、关税、能源、粮食、数据和技术有被用作施压工具的风险。”他强调，不信任和对既有定规则的漠视已催生出一种“大鱼吃小鱼”的文化。

The war in Iran and tensions along the Strait of Hormuz, he added, show how conflict in one hot spot can reshape and damage trade, energy and socioeconomic life in other countries far away.

他还表示，伊朗战争及霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势表明，一个热点地区的冲突能够重塑并损害远方其他国家的贸易、能源与社会经济生活。

He implied that something similar could happen in Asia, where Vietnam and many of its neighbors have expressed growing concern about escalating Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.

他暗示，类似情形在亚洲同样可能发生——越南及其许多邻国对中国在南中国海日益强硬的姿态表达了越来越多的担忧。

China, which claims most of the waterway as its own, has accelerated building artificial islands just beyond Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. Vietnam is also expanding construction on reefs and outposts nearby.

中国宣称对这里的大部分海域拥有主权，并加快了在越南专属经济区外侧建造人工岛屿的步伐。与此同时，越南也正在附近的礁石和前哨据点扩大建设规模

Between a quarter and a third of global maritime commerce flows through the South China Sea’s choke points.

全球四分之一至三分之一的海上贸易要途经南中国海的咽喉要道。

越南平阳省一家家具厂，摄于2025年。

Vietnam has a dual challenge: It needs its own disputes with both superpowers to stay manageable, and for the United States and China to coexist without sudden moves — on trade or with threats from their powerful militaries — that could damage its economic trajectory.

越南面临双重挑战：一方面，它需要确保自己与两个超级大国之间的争端保持在可控范围内；另一方面，它也需要美中能够和平共存，避免在贸易或强大军事力量的威胁上采取突然行动，从而损害越南的经济发展。

So far, Vietnam is still benefiting from the global movement of manufacturers away from China, to protect exports to the United States from high tariffs.

到目前为止，越南仍在从制造商为规避对美出口高额关税影响而从中国迁出的全球趋势中获益。

But its position is precarious. China is its largest trading partner, an increasingly large foreign investor, and the United States is its main market for the exports that have pushed Vietnam’s growth rates higher than anywhere else in Southeast Asia.

但其所处位置颇为微妙。中国是越南最大贸易伙伴，也是日益重要的外国投资来源地，而美国则是推动越南经济增长跃居东南亚之首的出口产品的主要市场。

Mr. Lam has sought to bolster relationships with both. But the White House has been more distant, with President Trump ignoring Vietnam’s repeated requests for a meeting, even after Mr. Lam visited Beijing this year, signing a series of agreements with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Some observers believe Vietnam has tilted toward China under Mr. Lam.

苏林一直试图加强与双方的关系。但白宫态度相对冷淡，即便苏林今年访问北京，并与习近平签署了一系列协议之后，美国总统特朗普仍未回应越南多次提出的会面请求。一些观察人士认为，在苏林领导下，越南的外交重心已经向中国倾斜。

Vietnamese officials and analysts insist that is only part of the story. Vietnam has also moved closer to countries that are wary of China, building economic and defense ties with South Korea, Japan, India and others, while also purchasing American military equipment, including C-130 transport planes.

不过，越南官员和分析人士坚持认为，这只是事情的一面。越南同时也在向那些对中国保持警惕的国家靠拢，加强与韩国、日本、印度等国的经济和防务合作，同时采购包括C-130运输机在内的美国军事装备。

Representative Gregory Meeks, a Democrat from New York and the ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who was in Singapore Friday after visiting Vietnam, said Washington was still assessing whether more military sales to Hanoi are possible.

周五在新加坡出席香格里拉对话会之前刚刚访问过越南的纽约州民主党众议员、众议院外交事务委员会资深成员格雷戈里·米克斯表示，华盛顿仍在评估是否可能向河内出售更多军事装备。

Analysts said Mr. Lam’s appearance at Shangri-La highlighted his desire for Vietnam to be seen as a pragmatic, neutral partner.

分析人士表示，苏林出席香格里拉对话凸显了他希望越南被视为务实、中立伙伴的意愿。

“He is trying to present himself as the leader of an emerging power, a power that needs to navigate in the time when neither of the major powers are reassuring, neither China nor U.S.,” said Huong Le Thu, deputy director of the Asia program at the International Crisis Group.

“他正试图将自己展现为一个新兴大国的领导人，它需要在两个大国——无论是中国还是美国——都无法让人感到安心的时代里寻找出路，”国际危机组织亚洲项目副主任黄乐秋表示。

Vietnam, Ms. Huong added, joins a “‘league’ of countries in the region that are not passively waiting for the new regional or global order to be shaped — they want to take an active role.”

她补充说，越南加入了一个“区域国家联盟——这些国家不愿被动等待新的地区秩序或全球秩序形成，而是希望主动参与其中”。