Japan’s population fell by more than 3 million over the past five years, according to official statistics released on Friday, a drop that underscores the depths of the country’s accelerating demographic crisis.

根据周五发布的官方统计数据，过去五年日本人口减少了逾300万。这一降幅凸显出该国日益加深的人口危机之严峻。

The population stood at 123 million in 2025, according to preliminary census results, down from 126.1 million in 2020. It is the biggest decrease since the government began collecting census data in 1920.

根据人口普查的初步结果，日本2025年人口为1.23亿，低于2020年的1.261亿。这是自政府1920年开始进行人口普查以来的最大降幅。

Japan’s population peaked in 2008 at 128 million, and it is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070. The country is now roughly the same size it was in 1989.

日本人口在2008年达到1.28亿的峰值，预计到2070年将降至8700万。目前日本的人口规模大致与1989年持平。

For decades, the Japanese authorities have tried to make up for the rapidly aging population by encouraging young people to have more children. But the effort has fallen short, leaving the country with one of the world’s lowest birth rates. For each new birth, there are two deaths.

几十年来，日本政府一直试图通过鼓励年轻人生育更多孩子来弥补人口迅速老龄化的影响。但这一努力收效甚微，导致日本成为全球出生率最低的国家之一。如今每出生一个新生儿，就有两人去世。

Japan is a harbinger of the demographic headwinds that will soon buffet other developed countries. The shrinking population is already constraining Japan's economic growth, putting pressures on its health care system and causing labor shortages.

日本的情况是即将冲击其他发达国家的人口逆风的信号。人口萎缩已经在制约日本的经济增长，给医疗体系带来压力，同时引发劳动力短缺。

The census data shows that the demographic crisis has now reached almost every part of Japan. All but two of the country’s 47 prefectures reported population decreases in 2025, and the rate of decline is accelerating.

人口普查数据显示，人口危机现在已波及日本几乎所有地区。2025年，日本47个都道府县中有45个报告人口减少，且人口下降速度正在加快。

Among the hardest hit areas were the northern prefectures of Akita and Aomori, where the population shrank by about 8 percent from 2020 to 2025. Those areas are home to some of Japan’s oldest residents, and young people have left at a rapid rate because of stagnant wages and harsh winters.

受冲击最为严重的地区包括北部的秋田县和青森县，两地人口在2020年至2025年间均减少了约8%。这些地区居住着日本最年长的人口群体之一，加之工资增长停滞和冬季严寒，年轻人正在加速流失。

日本大部分地区人口持续减少。

The Japanese countryside is hollowing out as the population ages and young people leave to seek jobs in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and other cities. In some rural areas, schools are being converted into nursing homes and community centers. Millions of homes are vacant; government offices and hospitals are downsizing; and train lines are shutting down.

随着人口老龄化，以及年轻人前往东京、大阪、名古屋等大城市寻找工作机会，日本农村正在逐渐空心化。在一些农村地区，学校被改建成养老院和社区活动中心。数百万套住宅空置；政府机关和医院规模缩减；铁路线路相继停运。

Opening Japan’s doors more widely to foreigners could help offset the declines. But the government has long taken a cautious approach to immigration, and nationalist politicians and commentators have gained influence recently with a “Japan First” agenda.

向外国人更广泛地开放国门可能有助于抵消人口下降的影响。但长期以来，日本政府对移民持谨慎态度，而奉行"日本优先"议程的民族主义政客和评论人士近年来影响力日增。

“Japan has now reached a level where this kind of decline is not reversible in the short- or medium-run,” said James Raymo, a professor of sociology at Princeton University who studies Japan. “It simply will not happen in the absence of mass immigration.”

研究日本问题的普林斯顿大学社会学教授詹姆斯·雷莫表示：“日本的人口下降已经到了短期和中期内无法逆转的程度。在没有大规模移民的情况下，这一局面根本不可能改变。”

There were a few bright spots in the census, including Okinawa, a subtropical chain of islands in the south, where the population grew slightly. Okinawa has Japan’s highest fertility rate, with women there giving birth to an average of 1.5 children in their lifetimes, compared with 1.1 nationally.

此次人口普查也有若干亮点，其中包括位于南部的亚热带岛链冲绳县——当地人口略有增长。冲绳拥有日本最高的生育率，当地女性平均一生生育1.5个孩子，而全国平均水平仅为1.1个。

Japan’s biggest cities are managing to stave off demographic decline — for now. The population of the Tokyo metropolitan area, which includes Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures of Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, rose slightly to 37 million in 2025. The area now accounts for roughly 30 percent of Japan’s total population.

日本的大城市目前尚能勉强抵御人口下滑的压力。包括东京及其周边的神奈川县、埼玉县和千叶县在内的东京都市圈，2025年人口小幅上升至3700万。如今这一地区约占日本总人口的30%。

东京人口密度约为日本全国平均水平的20倍。数据来源：日本统计局

Tokyo, a vibrant hub of business, politics and culture, is now about 20 times denser than the rest of Japan — and one of the world’s densest cities. (Tokyo’s population rose more than 1 percent to 14.2 million in 2025.) The growth has been fueled in large part by an influx of students and young workers looking for jobs and educational opportunities.

东京是一个充满活力的商业、政治和文化中心，其人口密度现在约为日本其他地区的20倍，也是全球密度最大的城市之一。（2025年东京人口增长逾1%，达到1420万。）这一增长在很大程度上得益于大量寻求就业机会和教育资源的学生与年轻劳动者的涌入。

Japan’s woes are likely to worsen in the coming decades. It will probably become increasingly difficult to find workers to staff schools, hospitals, police departments and train stations. And the country could lack enough young people to pay the taxes necessary to support retirees.

未来几十年，日本的人口困境很可能进一步恶化。届时，为学校、医院、警察部门和火车站配备足够工作人员可能会越来越困难。而且，日本可能缺乏足够多的年轻人缴纳税收来支撑退休人口。

Professor Raymo said the Japanese government’s efforts to promote fertility had “not really moved the needle.” He said that ultimately Japan could provide lessons for other governments.

雷莫教授表示，日本政府推动提高生育率的努力“实际上并没有带来明显变化”。他说，日本的经历最终或许能为其他国家政府提供借鉴。

“More and more countries in Asia and elsewhere will experience similar levels of demographic decline,” he said. “Japan is just at the forefront and has been at it much longer.”

“亚洲及其他地区越来越多的国家将经历类似程度的人口萎缩，”他说，“日本只是走在了最前面，而且这种情况已经持续很久了。”