Only the hackiest screenwriter imaginable would script America’s decline this way.

只有最蹩脚的编剧才会如此编排美国的衰落。

Think of it: On the 250th anniversary of our country’s founding, America’s increasingly senescent president turned the White House lawn into a tacky, bloody gladiatorial arena while capitulating to Iran. Mike Judge came close to imagining some elements of our debasement in his 2006 satire “Idiocracy,” which depicts a United States led by a professional wrestler whose middle name is Mountain Dew. But if “Idiocracy” captured something of the vibe of Donald Trump’s reign, it was both too early and too lighthearted to nail the sordid specifics, which on Sunday included the fighter Josh Hokit, standing in an octagonal cage wrapped in crypto ads, calling the former first lady Michelle Obama a man.

试想一下：在建国250周年之际，美国的这位日益衰老的总统将白宫草坪变成了一个俗气且血腥的角斗场，与此同时还在向伊朗投降。迈克·贾吉在2006年的讽刺喜剧《蠢蛋进化论》(Idiocracy)中近乎预见到了我们堕落的一些元素——该片描绘的美国由一位中间名为“激浪”(Mountain Dew)的职业摔跤手领导。如果说《蠢蛋进化论》捕捉到了唐纳德·特朗普统治时期的某种氛围，那它也既过于超前，又过于轻松，未能精准击中那些肮脏的细节。而在周日，这些细节包括了格斗选手乔什·霍基特站在贴满加密货币广告的八角笼里，称前第一夫人米歇尔·奥巴马是个男人。

It is, to be sure, a good thing that the war in Iran appears to be over. Once Trump had dragged America into a quagmire, there was no prospect of ending the debacle on beneficial terms. Contrary to the caterwauling of Iran hawks, the deal Trump reached isn’t the problem — it’s simply a tacit acknowledgment of a defeat that was already baked in. Still, it marks a moment of American ignominy.

诚然，伊朗战争看似结束了，这是件好事。一旦特朗普将美国拖入泥潭，就不可能指望以有利的条件收场。与那些伊朗鹰派的大声哀嚎相反，特朗普达成的协议本身不是问题——它不过是对一场早已注定的失败的无声承认。尽管如此，这依然标志着美国的一个耻辱时刻。

“The fact that the strongest, the mightiest military power in the world, in cooperation with the mightiest intelligence agency in the world — Israel’s — were not able to achieve any of their strategic objectives against a third-rate regional power is quite stunning,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.

“世界上最强大、最具威慑力的军事力量与世界上最强大的情报机构——以色列摩萨德——合作，却未能对一个三流地区强国实现任何战略目标，这简直令人震惊，”国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦埃兹如是说。

Details of the “memorandum of understanding” between the United States and Iran are still emerging; the White House has said the text will be released in a day or two. But it appears that its main accomplishment will be to open the Strait of Hormuz, which of course was open before the war. There’s been no nuclear agreement. Reports suggest Iran has not had to give up its ballistic missile program or its support for proxies like Hezbollah. The beleaguered Iranian people have not, perhaps needless to say, been freed from their awful rulers.

美伊之间这份“谅解备忘录”的细节仍在浮出水面；白宫表示文本将在一两天内公布。但它主要的成果似乎将是重新开放霍尔木兹海峡——而该海峡在战前本来就是畅通的。双方并没有达成核协议。报道显示，伊朗无需放弃其弹道导弹计划，也无需停止对真主党等代理人的支持。不用说，饱受压迫的伊朗人民也没有从他们糟糕的统治者的魔掌下获得解放。

Though Vice President JD Vance has said Iran could have access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund, it’s not clear what that will look like, or whether Iran might use its control of the Strait to collect some sort of toll. But by demonstrating its power to withstand American bombing while putting a chokehold on the global economy, it’s achieved a level of deterrence it previously lacked. “Iran is not likely to take seriously that the U.S. would return to war, certainly before the U.S. midterms,” wrote Daniel Shapiro, Barack Obama’s ambassador to Israel, on social media. “So that means we will be conducting diplomacy without a credible threat of force.”

尽管副总统JD·万斯表示伊朗可以获得3000亿美元的重建基金，但目前尚不清楚这笔资金的具体形式，也不清楚伊朗是否会利用其对霍尔木兹海峡的控制来收取某种过路费。但是，通过展示其在承受美国轰炸的同时扼住全球经济咽喉的能力，伊朗获得了此前缺乏的威慑力。“在中期选举之前，伊朗不太可能认真对待美国重返战争的可能性，”贝拉克·奥巴马政府的驻以色列大使丹尼尔·夏皮罗在社交媒体上写道。“这意味着我们将在没有可信武力威胁的情况下进行外交。”

It probably wasn’t a coincidence that the memorandum of understanding was finalized while Ultimate Fighting Championship cage matches were fought at the White House. In addition to marking the nation’s quarter of a millennium, the U.F.C. extravaganza was meant to celebrate Trump’s 80th birthday. Both Iran and some Democrats suspected he wanted to get the Iran deal done in time for the occasion. And Trump might have hoped that the event — which at one point had a Marine Corps honor guard onstage with ring girls in sparkly red hot pants and a human-size Monster Energy Drink can — would help lure back some of the young men disillusioned by both his war and his mishandling of the economy.

这份谅解备忘录在终极格斗冠军赛(UFC)于白宫举行笼斗比赛期间敲定，恐怕并非巧合。除了庆祝建国250周年，这场UFC盛会也是为了庆祝特朗普的80岁生日。伊朗和一些民主党人都怀疑，他想赶在此时完成伊朗协议。而特朗普或许希望，这场盛会——舞台上一度同时站着海军陆战队仪仗队、穿着亮片红色热裤的举牌女郎，还有一个真人大小的魔爪能量饮料罐——能帮助赢回那些因战争和经济乱局而感到幻灭的年轻男性。

Maybe it will work. Joe Rogan, the podcast host who has been increasingly critical of Trump in recent months, agreed to serve as an announcer. The Wall Street Journal reported on one excited fan who drove seven hours in the hope of seeing Trump’s pageant and said, “It’s like the Colosseum in real life.” To America’s founders, the fall of the Roman Republic and the rise of the Roman Empire was a cautionary tale. To parts of MAGA, it’s apparently aspirational.

也许这会奏效。近几个月来对特朗普批评越来越多的播客主持人乔·罗根同意担任解说员。《华尔街日报》报道了一位兴奋的粉丝，他开了七个小时的车希望能看到特朗普的这场盛典，并说：“这就像现实生活中的罗马斗兽场。”对于美国的开国元勋们而言，罗马共和国的衰落和罗马帝国的崛起是一个警世故事。而对于MAGA阵营的一部分人来说，这显然是一种向往。

But to everyone else, the confluence of America’s failure in Iran and Trump’s Temu colosseum should paint a clear picture of decadence, rot and weakness trying to conceal itself behind macho kitsch. This is an administration capable of immense, epic destruction, but unable to create much besides spectacle.

但对于其他人来说，美国在伊朗的失败与特朗普那Temu版斗兽场的结合应当清晰地勾勒出一幅画面：腐朽与软弱正试图躲在充满男子气概的刻奇背后自我掩饰。这届政府有能力制造巨大的、史诗般的破坏，但除了奇观之外，却几乎创造不出任何东西。

The conservative writer Marc Thiessen tried to depict Trump’s lurid festival as a sign of his demotic spirit, opening the White House to the sort of people who go to motocross rallies and monster truck shows. “If you’re offended by that, you may be an elitist snob,” he wrote. Put aside, for a moment, the fact that Thiessen once clucked that Barack Obama was failing to maintain “presidential dignity.” By this standard — that U.F.C. brawls, which John McCain once called “human cockfighting,” belong in the White House because lots of Americans like them — there can be no standards. Like Ultimate Fighting, porn is extremely popular, but I somehow doubt Thiessen would defend a Democratic president who invited a bunch of OnlyFans creators to the Oval Office while he was losing a war.

保守派作家马克·蒂森试图将特朗普这场耸人听闻的节日描绘为他亲民精神的体现，称其将白宫向那些喜欢摩托车越野赛和怪兽卡车秀的人群开放了。“如果你对此感到反感，你可能就是个精英主义的势利小人，”他写道。暂且不论蒂森曾对贝拉克·奥巴马未能维持“总统尊严”而喋喋不休这一事实。按这个标准——即约翰·麦凯恩曾称之为“人类斗鸡”的UFC斗殴之所以该进白宫，仅仅是因为很多美国人喜欢——那就意味着没有任何标准可言。和终极格斗一样，色情片也非常流行，但我很难相信，如果一位民主党总统在输掉一场战争的同时，邀请一群OnlyFans的创作者进椭圆形办公室，蒂森会为其辩护。

It’s tempting to mention bread and circuses here, except there’s no bread. On the contrary, Trump and his allies monetized Sunday’s program. In March, Trump obtained shares in the U.F.C.’s parent company. And to watch the show, members of the public needed a subscription to Paramount+, controlled by the Trump ally David Ellison, who bought CBS and then made it friendlier to the administration. Rather than a gift to his restive base, the event was another example of the administration selling America for parts.

这里很容易让人联想到“面包与马戏”，但问题是根本没有面包。恰恰相反，特朗普及其盟友将周日的节目变现了。今年3月，特朗普获得了UFC母公司的股份。而公众想要观看这场演出，需要订阅由特朗普盟友大卫·埃里森控制的Paramount+，此人收购了CBS并使其对现政府更加友好。这场活动非但不是给他躁动的基本盘的一份礼物，反而是本届政府将美国拆零出售的又一例证。

In the lead-up to the fight, the U.F.C.’s Derrick Lewis — who’d later be knocked out by Hokit — told The Journal he felt that he was participating in something historic. “This is one of the events they’ll be talking about 100 years from now,” he said. He could be right, but not in the way he thinks.

在比赛前夕，UFC选手德里克·刘易斯——他后来被霍基特击倒——告诉《华尔街日报》，他觉得自己正在参与一个历史性事件。“这是100年后人们还会谈论的事件之一，”他说。他可能是对的，但绝非以他所想的方式。

Someday, someone might write — or, more likely, film — an American version of Edward Gibbon’s “The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.” Its maker will want to include a scene of the 92-foot steel claw towering over the White House while somewhere inside the building, people scrambled to figure out how to sell a foreign policy disaster as a great victory.

将来某一天，有人或许会撰写——或者更有可能拍摄——一部爱德华·吉本的《罗马帝国衰亡史》的美国版。创作者一定会想要纳入这样一个场景：28米的钢铁巨爪耸立在白宫之上，而在大楼内的某个角落，人们正手忙脚乱地试图将一场外交政策灾难包装成伟大的胜利兜售出去。