Almost immediately after striking a deal with Iran, President Trump appeared eager to take a victory lap.

在与伊朗达成协议后，特朗普总统几乎是第一时间想要炫耀自己取得了大胜。

He trumpeted that the agreement would open the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for the world’s energy supplies whose stalled ship traffic has rattled the global economy. He told The New York Times that his efforts had saved Israel from nuclear extinction and made the Middle East safer. It all gave him a key win as he traveled to France for the Group of 7 summit, where he will meet with European leaders who have criticized his approach to the war.

他宣称，该协议将开放霍尔木兹海峡，这是全球能源供应的重要水道，此前船舶通行停滞已引发全球经济动荡。他在接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，自己的努力将以色列从核毁灭中解救了出来，并让中东变得更加安全。这一切在他前往法国参加七国集团首脑会议时为他带来了一场关键的胜利，他将在那里与曾批评其战争手段的欧洲领导人会面。

Despite Mr. Trump’s grandiose claims, the agreement has not yet achieved the core goals he laid out three months ago for launching U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

尽管特朗普夸下海口，但该协议并未实现他三个月前发动美以对伊战争时所设定的核心目标。

Back then, Mr. Trump said the United States intended to “annihilate” Iran’s military capabilities, abolish its nuclear ambitions, topple its theocratic leadership and liberate its people, whom he encouraged to take over their government when the fighting had stopped. Just one week after the strikes started, he said Iran’s only path to a deal was an “unconditional surrender.”

当时他表示美国旨在“消灭”伊朗的军事能力、废除其核野心、推翻其神权领导层并解放其人民，他还鼓励伊朗人民在战斗停止后接管自己的政府。就在袭击开始仅一周后，他就表示伊朗达成协议的唯一途径是“无条件投降”。

Mr. Trump publicly declared victory on Sunday mainly based on solving a problem of his own making, in miscalculating Iran’s ability to choke off the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Trump asserted on Truth Social that he had authorized the toll-free opening of the crucial waterway, which would essentially restore the prewar status quo, and celebrated that the global energy markets would rebound.

特朗普在周日公开宣布胜利，主要基于解决了一个由他自己造成的问题，即他错误估计了伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的能力。特朗普在Truth Social上断言，他已经批准了这条关键水道的免费开放——实际上就是恢复战前的状况——并兴高采烈地表示，全球能源市场将会反弹。

“Ships of the World, start your engines,” he wrote. “Let the oil flow!”

“世界各国的船只，启动你们的发动机吧，”他写道。“让石油流淌起来！”

许多船只滞留在霍尔木兹海峡。

The latest framework, which has not yet been publicly released and is expected to be signed in Geneva on Friday, is a capstone to three months in which Mr. Trump has delivered a dizzying array of mixed messages.

这份目前尚未公开的最新框架协议预计将于周五在日内瓦签署，这是对特朗普在三个月里传递出的一系列令人眼花缭乱的矛盾信息的总结。

He said that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated” in U.S. strikes last year, yet said that the war was necessary to stop the Iranians from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

他曾表示伊朗的核计划在去年美国的袭击中已被“彻底摧毁”，却又表示这场战争对于阻止伊朗人获得核武器是必要的。

Mr. Trump said that Iran’s nuclear program posed a threat not only to allies, but also to U.S. troops overseas and to everyday Americans. He was clear that the war’s conclusion would rest on one stipulation: “It has always been the policy of the United States, in particular, my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon,” he said. “I’ll say it again. They can never have a nuclear weapon.”

特朗普曾表示，伊朗的核计划不仅对盟友构成威胁，也对海外美军和普通美国人构成威胁。他明确表示，战争的结束将取决于一个条件：“这向来是美国、特别是我的政府的政策，即这个恐怖主义政权绝不能拥有核武器，”他说。“我再重复一遍。他们绝不能拥有核武器。”

Even on Saturday, when he announced that a deal would be signed the next day, he claimed that Iran’s leaders “no longer want a nuclear weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement.”

甚至在周六，当他宣布将于次日签署协议时，他还声称伊朗领导人“不再想要核武器，他们也不会通过购买、研制或任何其他形式的采购来拥有核武器”。

But the deal leaves that issue unresolved for at least another 60 days, when both sides are expected to negotiate on nuclear issues.

但该协议将会把这一问题搁置至少60天，届时双方预计将就核问题展开谈判。

Mr. Trump did not cast the deal as a solution to the nuclear threat. Instead he focused on the Middle East and his legacy.

特朗普并没有将该协议视作核威胁的解决方案。相反，他将焦点放在了中东和他的政治遗产上。

“This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region,” he wrote in a social media post. “Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me.”

“这一伟大的协议将为整个地区带来和平与安全，”他在社交媒体的一篇帖文中写道。“许多位总统都曾试图与伊朗建立和平，但在我之前全部失败了。”

Mr. Trump has also sent conflicting messages over how far he would go to secure a nuclear agreement with Iran. He has gone from threatening to wipe out the country’s civilization to saying he was in no hurry to remove its remaining stockpiles of enriched uranium.

关于他打算施展怎样的手段迫使伊朗就范，特朗普也释放了相互矛盾的信息。他的立场已经从威胁要抹去该国的文明，转变为表示自己并不急于清除其剩余的浓缩铀库存。

At the start of the war, Mr. Trump initially claimed the United States would accomplish its goals in “four to five weeks.” He repeatedly compared the war in Iran to his quick military operation in Venezuela, in which the top leader was removed but much of the rest of the government remained in place, willing to work with the United States.

在战争开始时，特朗普声称美国将在“四到五周内”完成其目标。他一再将伊朗战争与他在委内瑞拉快速进行的军事行动相提并论，那场行动导致最高领导人更迭，但政府的其他大部分架构仍留在原位，并愿意与美国合作。

This war instead dragged on for months, killing thousands of Iranian civilians and 13 American service members. Rather than bowing to the United States, Iran’s new leadership has been emboldened, consistently withstanding military and diplomatic pressure to persist in its goal of advancing a nuclear program.

相比之下，这场战争拖延了数月，导致数千名伊朗平民和13名美国军人丧生。伊朗的新领导层不仅没有向美国低头，反而变得更加强势，持续顶住军事和外交压力，坚持其推进核计划的目标。

In negotiations with Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and special envoy, Steve Witkoff, the Iranians have held firm on not giving up the right to enrich uranium.

在与特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳以及特使史蒂夫·威特科夫进行的谈判中，伊朗人在不放弃浓缩铀权利的问题上立场坚定。

“As for the nuclear issues, there really is no agreement,” Daniel B. Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said in a statement on X. “Iran knows how to drag out those negotiations, and try to pocket concessions along the way.”

“至于核问题，其实并没有达成协议，”前美国驻以色列大使丹尼尔·B·沙皮罗在X上的一份声明中表示。“伊朗知道如何拖延那些谈判，并试图在过程中捞取让步。”

He added that the United States now appeared to be paying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by potentially lifting sanctions imposed against Iran. The Trump administration has said Iran would receive no relief from sanctions or release of its frozen financial assets until it delivered on its commitments.

他还说，换言之，美国现在似乎正在通过可能解除对伊朗的制裁来换取重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。特朗普政府则曾表示，在伊朗履行其承诺之前，它不会获得任何制裁减免，其被冻结的金融资产也不会获得释放。

The framework does provide a path toward potential peace and economic relief. And on Monday, both world leaders and global markets expressed optimism.

该框架确实为潜在的和平与经济缓解提供了一条路径。周一，世界领导人和全球市场均表达了乐观情绪。

上周在德黑兰街头。伊朗新领导层非但没有向美国屈服，反而变得更加强势。

Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, who previously said that the United States had “no strategy” and was being “humiliated” by Iran in the war, congratulated both sides on the diplomatic breakthrough, calling it a potential step toward “a reinvigorated global economy and a more secure Middle East.”

德国总理弗里德里希·默茨此前曾表示美国在战争中“没有战略”且正遭到伊朗的“羞辱”，如今他向双方在外交上取得的突破表示祝贺，称其有望成为迈向“重振全球经济和更安全中东”的一步。

But it was a cautious optimism given all the uncertainties. Crucially, Iran’s nuclear capability will need to be hashed out over the next two months of negotiations, raising questions over whether a lasting peace will materialize.

但鉴于所有的不确定性，这是一种谨慎的乐观。至关重要的是，伊朗的核能力需要在接下来的两个月谈判中进行详细讨论，这引发了关于持久和平能否实现的疑问。

Plenty of spoilers could arise along the way. Notably Israel, a partner in the war but not in the framework for peace, has been less than enthusiastic about the deal. Mr. Trump himself said in the Times interview that he was prepared to restart military attacks against Tehran if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the United States.

在未来的进程中可能会出现许多搅局因素。值得注意的是，作为战争合作者但并未参与和平框架制定的以色列对该协议一直缺乏热情。特朗普本人在接受时报采访时就表示，如果伊朗未能与美国达成最终的核协议，他准备重新启动对德黑兰的军事打击。

Some of Mr. Trump’s allies appeared concerned over the unfinished aspects of the negotiations. Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who has long supported military action against Iran, said he was “somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming.”

特朗普的一些盟友似乎对谈判中未完成的部分感到担忧。长期支持对伊采取军事行动的南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆表示，他“有些担心伊朗对协议的看法似乎与美国谈判团队所声称的有所不同”。

“I will be watching closely the ensuing negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other matters,” Mr. Graham said. He added that Vice President JD Vance, whom he described as the “architect of the deal,” should ensure that the final deal is presented to Congress.

“我将密切关注随后关于伊朗核计划及其他事务的谈判，”格雷厄姆说。他补充说，被他称为“协议设计师”的副总统 JD·万斯应当确保将最终协议提交给国会。

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Mr. Vance said the framework gave the administration “leverage,” though there remained “details to figure out,” including on enriched uranium.

在周一接受CNBC采访时，万斯表示该框架为政府提供了“杠杆”，尽管仍有“细节需要解决”，包括在浓缩铀问题上。

As negotiations progressed over the weekend, Mr. Trump posted a lengthy criticism on social media of the previous deal struck with Iran by President Barack Obama, asserting that the one he was working on would be better.

随着谈判在周末取得进展，特朗普在社交媒体上对先前由贝拉克·奥巴马总统签署的伊朗协议发表了长篇批评，断言他正在努力达成的这一个将会更好。

Mr. Shapiro, who is also a fellow at the research institute The Atlantic Council, said on social media that Mr. Trump seemed focused on comparing his deal favorably to the Obama deal, but the United States was far from being able to come to such a conclusion.

兼任研究机构大西洋理事会研究员的沙皮罗在社交媒体上表示，特朗普似乎专注于证明自己的协议比奥巴马的好，但美国目前还远未能得出这样的结论。

“It is possible that no deal will ever be reached,” Mr. Shapiro said, “and very likely that if one is reached, it will be worse than what we could have achieved through diplomacy before the war.”

“有可能永远无法达成任何协议，”沙皮罗说，“并且非常可能的是，即使达成了一项协议，它也将比我们在战前通过外交途径所能取得的协议更糟糕。”