After the war in Iran cut off a fifth of the world’s oil supply, oil prices jumped, at one point reaching nearly $120 a barrel. But they didn’t spike higher, even though some analysts warned ominously of $200 oil, and prices have since come down.

伊朗战争切断了全球五分之一的石油供应后，油价大幅上涨，一度接近每桶120美元。但油价并未进一步飙升——尽管一些分析师曾忧心忡忡地警告油价可能达到每桶200美元——而且此后油价已经有所回落。

At more than $80 a barrel, oil is expensive. But it could be a lot higher.

每桶80多美元的油价已经相当昂贵，但原本可能会更高得多。

One major reason was China.

其中一个重要原因是中国。

The biggest oil buyer in the world, China has kept a lid on prices by rapidly reducing the amount of oil it imports. Before the war began, China imported an average of 11.6 million barrels per day. By May, its purchases of overseas oil had plunged to below eight million barrels a day, its lowest point in over eight years, according to customs data released by Beijing.

作为全球最大的石油买家，中国通过迅速减少石油进口量抑制了油价上涨。战争爆发前，中国日均进口1160万桶原油。而根据中国政府公布的海关数据，到5月份，中国海外原油采购量已跌破每日800万桶，为八年多来的最低水平。

While oil prices hit three-month low on Monday as United States and Iran said they reached a framework agreement for ending the war, analysts said China will still hold considerable sway over the global market.

周一，在美国和伊朗表示已就结束战争达成框架协议后，油价跌至三个月低点。但分析人士表示，中国仍将对全球石油市场拥有巨大影响力。

“The reduction in Chinese oil imports is one of the most important reasons oil prices are not going through the roof right now,” said Jason Bordoff, the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心创始主任杰森·博尔多夫表示：“中国减少石油进口是当前油价没有失控的最重要原因之一。”

The world has lost more than 14 million barrels per day since the United States and Israel began a joint military campaign against Iran on Feb. 28, prompting Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz and create the worst oil supply shock in modern history.

自2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发起联合军事行动、导致伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡并造成现代史上最严重的石油供应冲击以来，全球每日石油供应减少了1400多万桶。

九江的一家炼油厂，该厂将原油加工成汽油、柴油及其他石油产品。

The economics of energy was upended around the world. Drivers cut back on gasoline purchases. Governments forced blackouts to reduce power demand. Airlines reduced flights to save on jet fuel.

全球能源经济体系因此被彻底打乱。司机减少汽油消费。各国政府通过实施限电来降低电力需求。航空公司削减航班，以节省航空燃油。

China, too, took steps to reduce its demand for imports. It tapped its huge oil reserves, which dwarf those of other countries, while reducing production in refineries and using more coal, according to Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

中国也采取措施减少进口需求。据牛津能源研究所中国能源研究负责人米夏尔·迈丹介绍，该国动用了自己庞大的石油储备——这些储备的规模令其他国家相形见绌，同时降低炼油厂产量并增加煤炭使用量。

“The fact that China, to date, has not needed to tap the market significantly for alternative supplies has limited price increases,” she added.

“迄今为止，中国无需大举入市寻购替代供应，这在很大程度上抑制了油价的上涨，”她补充道。

The country’s transformation in recent years into the world’s first clean energy superpower has also helped.

近年来，中国转型成为全球首个清洁能源超级大国，这一转变也起到了作用。

Another factor putting downward pressure on oil prices over the past three months has been an increase in production by the United States to record levels. Some oil has also still exited the Persian Gulf, in part through land pipelines, tankers willing to pay tolls to Iran and fleets running dark with their transponders turned off to evade detection.

过去三个月对油价构成下行压力的另一个因素是，美国将石油产量提高到了创纪录水平。此外，仍有部分石油通过各种方式离开波斯湾——包括陆上管道、向伊朗支付通行费的油轮，以及关闭应答器以避免被发现的“黑船队”。

But China’s plummeting oil imports have played an outsize role in capping global prices.

但中国石油进口量的大幅下降在抑制全球油价方面发挥了尤为重要的作用。

Much as it did after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, China has restricted exports of diesel and gasoline, holding on to more for its own use. Just days after the war began, the government ordered its major state-owned energy companies to temporarily suspend exports, turned to domestic inventories and leaned on a mix of energy for its needs.

一如2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的应对，中国再度限制柴油和汽油出口，将更多燃料留存国内自用。战事爆发后数日，政府即命令主要国有能源企业暂时停止出口，转而动用国内库存，并依托多元能源结构满足自身需求。

China’s oil stockpile has allowed Beijing to wait for oil prices to come back down before starting to buy in the global market. Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at the data firm Kpler, said she expected China to draw down around one million barrels a day over the next two months from its commercial stockpile.

中国的石油储备规模使北京能够静待国际油价回落，再择机重返全球市场采购。数据公司Kpler高级石油分析师徐慕宇表示，预计中国未来两个月内每天将从商业储备中释放约100万桶石油。

At that rate, China could keep tapping reserves until this time next year without starting to draw on its official strategic stockpile, which stands at around 1.23 billion barrels, according to Ms. Xu’s analysis. Beijing would take such a step only reluctantly because it could threaten years of work to establish energy security.

根据徐慕宇的分析，按此速度，中国可以一直动用储备到明年年中，而无需动用其官方战略储备——据估计约为12.3亿桶。北京只有在极不情愿的情况下才会动用这部分战略储备，因为这可能威胁到多年来建立能源安全体系的努力。

At the same time, China has reduced its demand for combustion fuels like gasoline and diesel with its staggering growth in electric vehicles and renewable energy.

与此同时，随着电动汽车和可再生能源的飞速普及，中国对汽油、柴油等燃烧类燃料的需求也在持续减少。

China leads the world in clean energy, operating roughly twice as much wind and solar capacity as the rest of the world combined. It also produces and sells more electric vehicles than the rest of the world combined.

中国是全球清洁能源领导者，其风能和太阳能装机容量大约相当于世界其他国家总和的两倍。中国生产和销售的电动车数量也超过世界其他国家总和。

盐城的风力发电机和太阳能电池板。中国运营的风能和太阳能装机容量约为世界其他地区总和的两倍。

That growth was critical to the plateauing of China’s greenhouse gas emissions last year. Scientists say it is crucial for China, the world’s largest annual emitter, to peak and begin to draw down its planet-warming pollution quickly if the world hopes to keep global warming to relatively safe levels. But that has hardly been the point of Beijing’s exponential expansion of wind, solar and electric vehicles.

这一增长对中国去年温室气体排放趋于平稳至关重要。科学家表示，如果世界希望将全球变暖控制在相对安全的水平，作为全球年度排放量最大的国家，中国必须使其排放达到峰值并开始快速减少其导致地球变暖的污染。但北京大规模扩张风能、太阳能和电动车的主要目的并非气候变化。

“The key reason China has developed renewable energy is not for the sake of the climate, it’s for energy security,” said Mathias Larsen, a senior policy fellow at the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute.

“中国发展可再生能源的关键原因不是为了气候，而是为了能源安全，”伦敦政治经济学院格兰瑟姆研究所高级政策研究员马蒂亚斯·拉尔森表示。

“That bet, and the fact that renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels, especially imported gas and oil, means China hasn’t been nearly as exposed to the fossil fuel price spike after the Iran war as it would have been,” Mr. Larsen said.

拉尔森说：“这一战略，加上如今可再生能源成本已经低于化石燃料——尤其是进口天然气和石油，使得中国在伊朗战争后的化石能源价格飙升中受到的冲击远小于原本可能遭受的程度。”

According to the International Energy Agency, electric vehicles alone have cut China’s oil demand significantly, displacing tens of millions of tons of gasoline. Meanwhile, Beijing also has expanded its high-speed rail network. According to China’s Ministry of Railways, 421.7 million people used the railways in April, up 11 percent from a year earlier, a seasonal record.

国际能源署数据显示，仅电动汽车一项就已显著削减了中国的石油需求，替代了数千万吨汽油消耗。与此同时，北京还在持续扩建高铁网络。据中国铁道部的数据，4月份铁路旅客发送量达4.217亿人次，同比增长11%，创下历史同期新高。

中国快速普及电动汽车和可再生能源，降低了对汽油和柴油的需求。

“This has been a yearslong effort that is now providing the basis for China to systematically reduce its oil consumption,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“这是多年努力的成果，而如今它正为中国系统性地减少石油消费提供基础，”亚洲协会政策研究所中国气候中心主任李硕表示。

And yet stockpiles, even China’s, cannot be used indefinitely. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, “no one knows” how long China can maintain its reduced levels of oil imports, said Logan Wright, who leads the China markets research at the Rhodium Group, a consulting firm.

然而，再庞大的储备终究不可无限期动用，即便是中国也不例外。咨询机构荣鼎集团中国市场研究主管洛根·赖特表示，如果霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，“没有人知道”中国能够维持当前低进口水平多长时间。

“It’s not a year, and it’s probably not six months, even. There will be a return,” he said. When that happens, he added, it will be “a signal that prices are likely headed back up.”

他说：“肯定不是一年，甚至很可能连六个月都撑不到。最终还是会回归市场采购。”他补充道，一旦这种情况发生，“那将是油价可能重新上涨的信号。”