The framework deal between the United States and Iran sets the stage for an end to the bursts of violence and debilitating disruption of energy deliveries and trade in the Persian Gulf. But don’t expect economies around the globe to simply pick up where they left off before the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on Feb. 28.

美国与伊朗达成的框架协议为结束波斯湾地区时断时续的暴力冲突以及严重扰乱能源运输和贸易的局面铺平了道路。但不要指望全球经济能够轻易回到2月28日美国和以色列开始轰炸伊朗之前的状态。

The war has set in motion changes that will be hard to reverse.

这场战争已经引发了一系列难以逆转的变化。

The global energy order is being reshaped.

全球能源秩序正在重塑。

The near shutdown in oil and gas deliveries from the Middle East and the leap in prices are causing a shift in power. Energy producers from the Gulf to the Americas are jockeying to maintain or increase their dominance, and customers are struggling to reduce their dependency and shore up their supply.

中东石油和天然气供应的几近中断以及价格飙升正在导致权力格局发生变化。从海湾地区到美洲的能源生产国都在竞相维持或扩大各自的主导地位，而消费国则努力减少依赖、保障供应。

As a result, the energy market is changing, the energy mix is changing and the energy players are changing.

结果是，能源市场在变，能源结构在变，能源版图中的主导者也在变。

The profound vulnerability of countries throughout Asia, Europe and elsewhere that depend on imported energy is supercharging the hunt for alternatives. In some places, like South Korea and Japan, that has led to an increased use of dirtier fuels like coal.

亚洲、欧洲以及其他依赖进口能源的国家所暴露出的深层脆弱性正在极大地推动它们寻找替代能源。韩国、日本等国已重新加大对煤炭等污染更严重的燃料的使用。

But over the longer term, this energy shock — the second in just four years — is likely to accelerate a transition to renewables like solar and wind as well as nuclear power.

但从长远来看，这场能源冲击——四年内的第二次——可能会加速向太阳能、风能等可再生能源以及核能的转型。

以色列空袭提尔一家医院附近，救援人员搜寻伤亡人员。

Improvements in electric battery technology and efficiency make the shift more feasible than it was when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted a global energy shock in 2022, said Daan Walter at Ember, an energy research group in London.

伦敦能源研究机构Ember的达安·沃尔特表示，电池技术和能效的进步使得这种转型比2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发全球能源冲击时更具可行性。

In many places, for instance, electric vehicles are increasingly affordable. And in April, wind and solar generated more electricity globally than gas for the first time.

例如，在许多地方，电动车正变得越来越便宜。今年4月，全球风能和太阳能发电量首次超过天然气。

“This is a big turnaround,” Mr. Walter said. “So what was five years ago maybe barely competitive, now is almost already clearly cheaper.”

“这是一个巨大的转折，”沃尔特说。“五年前或许还只是勉强具备竞争力的技术，现在已经明显更便宜了。”

Investments in renewables have also become a better bet, promising returns in closer to two years instead of 30, he said.

他说，对可再生能源的投资如今也变得更有吸引力，投资回报周期已从过去接近30年缩短至约两年。

Relations among producers are also changing. The war heightened tensions between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and prompted the Emirates to leave the OPEC Plus oil cartel. The impact of that departure will be fully felt only when oil production in the region picks up. But a weakened Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could add to volatility in oil markets.

生产国之间的关系同样在发生变化。这场战争加剧了阿联酋与沙特阿拉伯之间的紧张关系，促使阿联酋退出了“欧佩克+”这个产油国联盟。这一退出的全面影响要等到该地区石油产量回升后才会充分显现。但一个遭到削弱的石油输出国组织可能会加剧全球油市的波动性。

The split has also encouraged the Saudis to move closer to Russia. Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian president, featured Saudi Arabia this month as the “guest of honor” at an economic forum in St. Petersburg.

这一分裂也促使沙特与俄罗斯走得更近。本月，俄罗斯总统普京将沙特阿拉伯列为圣彼得堡一个经济论坛的“贵宾”。

Russia, the second-largest producer of crude oil and gas after the United States, has been strengthened in other ways by the war. The Trump administration temporarily lifted sanctions imposed on Russia, allowing Moscow to pump up profits from its oil exports when its economy is ailing.

作为仅次于美国的全球第二大原油和天然气生产国，俄罗斯也从这场战争中获得了其他方面的好处。特朗普政府暂时放松了对俄罗斯的制裁，使得莫斯科在其经济低迷之际能够从石油出口中获取更多利润。

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Argentina and Guyana are building their oil production capacity as the world looks for alternative suppliers.

在大西洋的另一边，巴西、委内瑞拉、哥伦比亚、阿根廷和圭亚那都在扩大石油生产能力，以满足全球寻找替代供应国的需求。

中国盐城的风力涡轮机部件。中国企业在现代电网几乎所有部件的制造中占据主导地位。

China is a major beneficiary.

中国是主要受益者。

The push to build out and diversify energy networks is going to continue long after the war ends. And China is poised to benefit most from the expected boon in renewables.

战争结束后，建设能源网络和实现供应多元化的努力仍将持续很长时间。而在预期中的可再生能源红利浪潮中，中国有望成为最大的受益者。

It is leagues ahead of the rest of the world in producing wind turbines, high-voltage cables, transformers, solar panels, batteries, software to manage energy flows and more.

在风力涡轮机、高压电缆、变压器、太阳能板、电池，以及能源管理软件等领域，中国遥遥领先于世界其他国家。

China’s increasing role ensuring that other countries have a dependable supply of energy amplifies its strategic influence and importance.

中国在保障其他国家获得可靠能源供应方面所扮演的角色日益重要，这进一步增强了它的战略影响力和重要性。

“China looks to be an out-and-out winner,” analysts from Wood Mackenzie, a global energy consulting firm, concluded.

“中国看起来将是全面赢家，”全球能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹的分析师总结道。

Re-establishing trust will be difficult.

重建信任将殊为不易。

It is unclear whether shipping traffic will ever again be able to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz — the only sea route for moving oil, natural gas and other cargo out of the Persian Gulf.

目前尚不清楚航运是否还能像过去那样自由通过霍尔木兹海峡——这是波斯湾石油、天然气及其他货物运往外部世界的唯一海上通道。

停泊在霍尔木兹海峡的船只，摄于上周。

Iran has pushed to impose fees on ships that pass through the narrow waterway, even though such a plan could violate international agreements. Even if new payments are not codified, Iran has shown it can disrupt trade any time it wants, which raises risks and costs.

伊朗一直试图向通过这条狭窄水道的船只征收费用，尽管这一做法可能违反国际协议。即便最终没有实施收费制度，伊朗也已经证明，它可以在任何时候干扰贸易活动，从而提高航运风险和成本。

“I think the strait is never going to go back to the certainty of free passage that we’ve been used to,” said Maurice Obstfeld, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

国际货币基金组织前首席经济学家莫里斯·奥布斯特费尔德表示：“我认为这条海峡再也无法回到我们过去习惯的那种确定性的自由通行状态了。”

Similarly, the trust in the region’s peace, stability and growing prosperity has also been shaken.

同样，对该地区和平、稳定和持续繁荣的信心也遭到动摇。

“The dynamism of the Gulf economies may be impaired by the vulnerability they showed,” Mr. Obstfeld said, and that “raises Iran’s leverage in the region.”

“海湾经济体的活力可能会因其暴露出的脆弱性而受损，”奥布斯特菲尔德说，这“提高了伊朗在该地区的筹码”。

The economy has been kicked onto a path of slower growth and higher prices.

全球经济已被推上增速放缓、物价高企的轨道。

When economists at the World Bank began sifting through data early this year, they were pleasantly surprised. “We were starting to think about upgrading our forecasts, between January and February, because things were looking so good,” said Indermit Gill, the bank’s chief economist. “Inflation was coming down, growth was picking up, trade had kind of taken it on the chin and was still standing.”

今年年初，当世界银行的经济学家开始梳理数据时，他们一度感到惊喜。“1、2月间，我们甚至开始考虑上调增长预测，因为当时情况看起来相当不错，”该行首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔说。“通胀正在下降，经济增长正在回升，而贸易虽然受到重击，却依然站得住脚。”

No more. The bank just revised its economic outlook, lowering its forecast. It now expects global growth to decline to 2.5 percent this year from 2.9 percent in 2025.

如今已是另一番景象。世界银行刚刚下调了经济展望，预计全球经济增速将从2025年的2.9%降至今年的2.5%。

Inflation is also starting to roar. In the United States, it rose for the third month in row, hitting an annual rate of 4.2 percent in May. And instead of planning for the next drop in interest rates, Wall Street is expecting the Federal Reserve to increase rates at least once this year. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates to 2.25 percent. “The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures,” the bank said.

通胀也开始抬头。在美国，通胀连续第三个月上升，5月份年化通胀率达到4.2%。华尔街不再预期美联储下一步降息，转而预计今年至少加息一次。上周，欧洲央行将利率提高至2.25%，并称“中东战争正在产生通胀压力”。

Higher rates have serious longer-term effects on both rich and poor countries that have already run up staggering public debts and are using a growing portion of revenue just to pay interest costs.

对于那些已经背负巨额公共债务，并且越来越多财政收入只能用于支付利息的国家而言，无论是富国还是穷国，更高的利率都会带来严重的长期后果。

Those budgetary pressures are only going to increase as governments offer assistance to households struggling with higher energy prices and increase military budgets to cope with growing security threats.

随着各国政府向承受高能源价格压力的家庭提供援助，并增加军费预算以应对不断上升的安全威胁，这种财政压力只会进一步加剧。

Asian economies, slapped hardest by the crisis, have already inundated the Asian Development Bank for emergency loans as they seek to rescue their economies and finances from the impact of the Iran war.

受危机冲击最严重的亚洲经济体已经纷纷向亚洲开发银行申请紧急贷款，希望减轻伊朗战争对本国经济和财政造成的影响。

随着通胀上升、各国央行维持高利率，家庭正面临新一轮生活成本压力。

“The world economy is going to end up being more jittery,” Mr. Gill said. And that is not good for long-term planning, investment or growth.

“世界经济将变得更加动荡不安，”吉尔说。这对长期规划、投资和增长都不是好事。