When Xi Jinping met President Trump last year, the Chinese leader wielded his country’s control over critical minerals, a strong posture that helped nudge Mr. Trump to agree to a yearlong trade truce. This week, when Mr. Xi hosts the American president in Beijing, he will have another powerful card to play: the war in Iran.

去年习近平会见特朗普总统时，这位中国领导人利用本国对关键矿产的控制权作为筹码，这一强硬姿态促使特朗普同意了为期一年的贸易休战。本周，当习近平在北京接待美国总统时，他将拥有另一张有力的王牌：伊朗战争。

While the United States has been at war, Mr. Xi has been calling for peace and receiving foreign dignitaries from the Gulf and Europe seeking his help to end the crisis. Just before the U.S. president’s visit, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, traveled to Beijing in a not-so-subtle reminder of China’s sway over its partner in the Middle East.

在美国深陷战争之际，习近平一直在呼吁和平，并接见来自海湾地区和欧洲、寻求他协助结束这场危机的外国政要。就在美国总统访问前夕，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐访问了北京，不那么含蓄地彰显了中国对其中东伙伴的影响力。

“The Iran issue actually helps China,” said Li Daokui, a prominent economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

北京清华大学著名经济学家李稻葵表示：“伊朗问题实际上对中国有帮助。”

China, he said, has important economic leverage over Tehran that it could be willing to use in pursuit of goals it cares more about — chief among them, prying the United States away from Taiwan, the self-governing island Beijing claims is its own.

他说，中国对德黑兰拥有重要的经济杠杆，并可能愿意利用这一杠杆来追求自身更关心的目标——其中最核心的是让美国远离台湾这个北京声称拥有主权的自治岛屿。

That should give Mr. Xi extra confidence going into the summit that starts Thursday, the leaders’ first in-person meeting since October. The White House has been trying to pressure China, a key buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil, to cut back on its support of Tehran.

这应该会给习近平在周四开始的峰会中带来额外信心，这是两位领导人自去年10月以来的首次面对面会晤。白宫一直试图向中国施压，要求其减少对德黑兰的支持，因为中国是受制裁伊朗石油的主要买家。

China’s Useful Influence Over Iran

中国对伊朗的有益影响

China has its own reasons to help end the conflict. Its economy is affected by higher energy prices. A global recession would hurt China’s exports, which are a major engine of growth. Its strategic oil reserves, while helpful, are not limitless.

中国自身也有理由协助结束这场冲突。其经济正受到能源价格上涨的影响。全球经济衰退将损害中国的出口，而出口是中国经济增长的主要引擎。中国的战略石油储备虽然有所帮助，但并非无穷无尽。

China has prodded Iranian officials to negotiate with the United States, but is wary of becoming entangled in a war it sees as largely Washington’s to resolve. Even if it won’t get involved militarily, though, China may be willing to work with the United States on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key sea route through which as much as 40 percent of China’s oil imports are shipped.

中国已督促伊朗官员与美国进行谈判，但也对卷入一场它认为主要应由华盛顿解决的战争持谨慎态度。不过，即便中国不进行军事干预，它也可能愿意与美国就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡展开合作，中国多达40%的进口石油需经由这条关键海运通道运输。

中国南京的一家原油炼油厂和石化厂，摄于本月。

“The Chinese side may reach some agreement with the U.S. saying, ‘Let’s work together to persuade Iran to keep the strait open,’” Dr. Li said, adding that Beijing would also likely want assurances that the United States would not blockade the waterway.

“中方可能会与美国达成某种协议，表示‘让我们共同劝说伊朗保持海峡开放’，”李稻葵说。他还说，北京可能也会希望获得美国不会封锁该水道的保证。

China could still offer various incentives to Tehran to work with Washington, such as loans, investments and offers to help with postwar reconstruction, analysts say. (Beijing is unlikely to press Tehran to give up its nuclear program, though.)

分析人士称，中国仍可向德黑兰提供各种激励措施，促其与华盛顿合作，例如贷款、投资以及战后重建援助。（不过，北京不太可能施压德黑兰放弃其核计划。）

Discussing Taiwan Arms Sales: No Longer Taboo?

讨论对台军售：不再是禁忌？

What Mr. Xi wants most from Mr. Trump lies elsewhere — in Taiwan. Mr. Xi is seeking a softening of America’s support for the island, whether through a delay or reduction in arms sales, or a statement that Washington opposes its independence. The Trump administration has already delayed announcing a $13 billion package of arms sales to Taiwan to avoid angering Mr. Xi.

习近平最想从特朗普那里得到的东西在别处——在台湾。习近平希望美国弱化对该岛的支持，无论是通过推迟或减少军售，还是发表华盛顿反对台湾独立的声明。特朗普政府此前已经推迟宣布一项价值130亿美元的对台军售计划，以避免激怒习近平。

Mr. Trump this week said again that he planned to discuss with China the question of arms sales to Taiwan. If he were to do so, Mr. Trump could be violating a longstanding commitment known as the Six Assurances, a pillar of U.S.-Taiwan and U.S.-China policies. The Reagan-era assurances were sent to Taiwan’s president in 1982, and one is generally understood to say that the U.S. government would not consult with Beijing before an arms sale to Taiwan.

特朗普本周再次表示，他计划与中国讨论对台军售问题。如果这样，特朗普可能违反一项被称为“六项保证”的长期承诺——这是美台和美中政策的支柱。这些保证始于里根时期，于1982年送达台湾总统，其中一项保证通常被理解为美国政府在对台军售前不会与北京商讨。

2023年，台湾军队演练如何击退入侵部队。

For Mr. Trump to put this on the table could be a departure from decades of American foreign policy, depending on how the topic was broached, and a win for Mr. Xi.

特朗普若将此作为谈判筹码，视具体讨论方式，可能成为对美国数十年来外交政策的背离，并且成为习近平的胜利。

Among more hawkish Chinese scholars, the war in Iran has also exposed U.S. military weakness, giving Beijing yet more confidence to push on the issue of Taiwan. During the conflict, the United States was forced to divert military assets away from Asia and deplete its munitions stockpiles.

在立场更强硬的中国学者看来，伊朗战争还暴露了美国军力的薄弱，这让北京在推进台湾问题方面更有信心。冲突期间，美国被迫将军事力量移出亚洲，并耗尽了弹药库存。

“The conflict with Iran indicates that the U.S. simply cannot sustain a major war with China over Taiwan. That’s very clear,” said Wu Xinbo, a leading American studies scholar at Fudan University in Shanghai.

“与伊朗的冲突表明，美国根本无法承受因台湾问题与中国发生一场大战。这非常明确，”上海复旦大学著名美国问题研究学者吴心伯说。

Redefining the Relationship

重新定义关系

For Beijing, the summit is perhaps less about extracting any specific concessions and more about redefining the terms of how the two superpowers should engage.

对于北京而言，此次峰会或许与其说是争取具体让步，不如说是重新定义两大超级大国应如何接触。

Mr. Xi will be seeking validation that his country, the world’s second-largest economy, is now an equal to the United States. And that he, as its leader, is a peer of Mr. Trump’s. It is something Mr. Xi has sought since he first took office in 2012 and an understanding that Chinese officials and analysts say would herald a more stable relationship of managed, however uneasy, coexistence.

习近平将寻求一种确认：中国作为世界第二大经济体，如今与美国起鼓相当；而作为国家领导人的他与特朗普平起平坐。这是习近平自2012年首次就任以来一直追求的目标。中国官员和分析人士表示，这样的共识将预示着一种更稳定的关系，是一种尽管仍然充满不安，但属于可控的共存状态。

“If the U.S. president is the leader of the free world and Xi Jinping is his peer, then what does that say about Xi Jinping’s — his leadership? That means that he must be a world leader as well,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.

“如果美国总统是自由世界的领袖，而习近平和他平起平坐，那么这说明了习近平的什么——他的领导力？这意味着习近平必定也是一位世界领袖，”华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说。

特朗普总统于周三抵达北京。

China has argued, most recently in an editorial by the official Xinhua News Agency on Wednesday headlined “Finding the Right Way for China and the U.S. to Get Along as Major Powers,” that the United States should not expect to have it both ways with China. It criticized Washington for asking Beijing to help on issues it cares about — such as helping to curb the flow of fentanyl to America — while simultaneously hurting Chinese interests, for instance by imposing sanctions on Chinese companies.

中国一直认为，美国不应该指望在中国问题上两头获利，最近的例子是官方通讯社新华社周三发表的题为《走出一条中美大国正确相处之道》的社论，文中批评华盛顿一方面要求北京在美方关切的问题上提供协助，例如协助遏制芬太尼流入美国；另一方面却损害中国利益，例如对中企实施制裁。

But that dynamic has defined the relationship for the past eight years, leading them to spar over everything from the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic to the appearance of a Chinese spy balloon floating over the United States. Today, the two sides remain at odds over China’s support of Iran and Russia, as well as U.S. export controls that cut Chinese companies off from advanced computer chips and other technology.

但这种动态在过去八年里定义了中美双边关系，导致两国在从新冠疫情源头到中国间谍气球飘过美国上空等所有问题上发生争执。如今，在中国支持伊朗和俄罗斯的问题上，以及在美国切断中国企业获取先进计算机芯片和其他技术的出口管制问题上，双方依然存在分歧。

China Wants to Buy Time to Get Stronger

中国希望争取时间，让自己更强大

Ultimately, China wants more stability and a continuation of the trade truce. That means no more tariffs, no export controls, no sanctions imposed on its companies.

归根结底，中国希望保持稳定，并延续贸易停火状态。这意味着不再加征关税、不再实施出口管制、不再有针对其企业的制裁。

“They just want time and space to fortify themselves for future competition,” said Amanda Hsiao, a director in Eurasia Group’s China Practice, who was recently in Beijing meeting scholars and officials.

“他们只是想要时间和空间来巩固自身实力，应对未来的竞争，”欧亚集团中国业务总监萧嫣然说，她最近在北京会见了学者和官员。

Beijing has already been doing that, by building up what Mr. Xi calls “national self-reliance” in technology but also trade and science. Since the two leaders last met six months ago, China has sharpened its tools to inflict economic pain on rivals. After years of U.S. export controls, Chinese companies are building their own chips, while firms like DeepSeek are designing A.I. systems that get around the constraints.

北京已经在这样做，通过构建习近平所称的技术、贸易和科学领域的“国家自力更生”来实现这一点。自两位领导人六个月前上次会面以来，中国已经磨砺了给对手造成经济痛苦的手段。经过美国几年来的出口管制，中国企业正在自主研发芯片，而像DeepSeek这样的公司正在设计能够规避这些限制的人工智能系统。

Beijing has also demonstrated that it will push back if provoked: When Washington placed sanctions on a Chinese refinery in April for buying Iranian oil, China ordered its companies not to comply.

北京也已经表明，如果受到挑衅，它将予以回击：当华盛顿在4月份因购买伊朗石油对一家中国炼油厂实施制裁时，中国命令其企业不予配合。

To help set a positive tone, though, China may commit to purchases of Boeing aircraft, American soybeans and U.S. beef.

不过，为了协助营造积极的基调，中国可能会承诺采购波音飞机、美国大豆和美国牛肉。

“For the Chinese, that’s an OK price to pay for stability,” Ms. Hsiao said.

“对中国人来说，为了换取稳定，这是一个可以接受的代价，”萧嫣然说。