
More than halfway through his third term as China’s leader, Xi Jinping still remains one of the most opaque figures in global politics, his views on rivals and partners inferred from the tightly controlled choreography of his public appearances.
作为中国领导人的第三个任期已过半, 习近平依然是全球政坛最不透明的人物之一,他对竞争对手和合作伙伴的看法只能从精心编排的公开露面中窥见一二。
But in private meetings with foreign leaders, captured in the accounts of those who were there, along with the occasional hot mic, a sharper portrait emerges. It is of a leader who has no close rivals for power in China, who does not hesitate to lecture less powerful leaders, and who carries himself as a philosopher king in the mold of ancient Chinese rulers.
但在与外国领导人的私下会面中——经由在场者的陈述,偶或借助未关的麦克风,一幅更为清晰的形象浮现出来。他在中国没有任何势均力敌的对手,会毫不客气地教训那些实力较弱的领导人,并摆出中国古代哲人圣君的姿态。
And by at least one account, Mr. Xi formed his verdict of President Trump nearly a decade ago — a judgment likely to have shaped his approach to global affairs ever since, including how he handles Mr. Trump this week in Beijing.
至少有一种说法认为,习近平在近十年前就已对特朗普形成了自己的判断,这一判断很可能影响了他此后对全球事务的处理方式,包括本周在北京如何跟特朗普打交道。
It was late 2016, and Mr. Trump had just stunned the world weeks earlier by winning the U.S. presidential election. Mr. Xi was meeting President Obama for the final time at a summit in Lima, Peru, and he had questions.
那是2016年底,特朗普在几周前刚刚出人意料地赢得了美国总统大选。在秘鲁利马的一次峰会上,习近平与即将卸任的奥巴马总统进行了最后一次会晤,他向奥巴马提出了疑问。
Mr. Xi seemed baffled as to how American voters could choose someone so unconventional, according to Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser in the Obama administration who attended the meeting.
据参加那次会议的奥巴马政府副国家安全顾问本·罗兹回忆,习近平似乎对美国选民为什么会选择一位如此不传统的候选人感到困惑。
Mr. Obama tried to explain to Mr. Xi that Mr. Trump’s rise was a sign of economic frustration in the United States, in part over the loss of manufacturing jobs to China and the theft of intellectual property. Mr. Xi, in Mr. Rhodes’s telling, was displeased with the explanation.
奥巴马试图向他解释,特朗普的崛起是美国人对经济状况不满的表现,部分原因正是制造业就业岗位流向中国,以及知识产权遭到窃取。在罗兹的叙述中,习近平对这番解释有些不快。
He put down his pen, folded his arms and said: “If an immature leader throws the world into chaos, then the world will know who to blame.”
他放下手中的笔,抱起双臂,说道:“如果一个不成熟的领导人把世界搞乱了,那全世界都知道该怪谁。”
Now, as he heads into a summit with Mr. Trump in Beijing, Mr. Xi will want to present China as a stable and strong global power, analysts say, while being conciliatory enough to preserve a fragile trade truce with Mr. Trump.
如今,在即将与特朗普在北京举行峰会之际,分析人士表示,习近平一方面希望展现中国作为稳定而强大的全球大国,同时又不失和解姿态,以维持与特朗普达成的脆弱的贸易休战。
“I expect that Xi will show Trump respect but not flatter him,” said Susan Shirk, the author of “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise.”
“我预计习近平会对特朗普表现出尊重,但不会去奉承他,”《过度扩张——中国如何偏离和平崛起》(Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise)一书作者谢淑丽(Susan Shirk)说。
“The contrast with Trump’s unilateral and disruptive actions will be implicit, not explicit,” she added.
“与特朗普的单边主义和破坏性行为的对比将是含蓄的,不会那么直白,”她补充道。
The Lecturer: How Xi Treats Middle Powers
说教者:习近平如何对待中等强国
If Mr. Xi treats Washington with cautious restraint, he is less likely to hold back with middle powers like Canada and Britain.
若说习近平对待华盛顿尚有几分审慎克制,那么在面对加拿大、英国这样的中等强国时,他便没有那么留情面了。
• In 2022, Mr. Xi confronted then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada at the end of a Group of 20 summit in Indonesia and accused him of leaking details of the previous day’s talks between them to the media. The tense exchange between the two men, who were standing close to each other and speaking through translators, was captured by a news cameraman.
• 2022年,在印度尼西亚举行的二十国集团峰会结束时,习近平当面质问时任加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多,指责他向媒体泄露了前一天两人会谈的细节。当时两人站得很近,通过翻译交谈,这段剑拔弩张的对话被一名媒体摄影师捕捉下来。
• “That was not appropriate,” Mr. Xi said, smiling tightly. “And that’s not how the conversation was conducted,” he continued, shaking his head. He said sincerity and respect were needed for talks to be productive, and in an implicit warning, added: “Otherwise, the outcome will be hard to say.” Mr. Trudeau tried to argue that he had done nothing wrong by Canadian standards and offered to agree to disagree. Mr. Xi then cut him off and said, “Let’s create the conditions first,” before shaking Mr. Trudeau’s hand and walking off.
“这不合适啊,”习近平紧抿着嘴,笑着说。“而且我们也不是那样进行的,” 他一边摇头,一边继续说道。他表示,谈话需要诚心和互相尊重的态度才能有效,并以带有警告意味的话语补充道:“否则结果很难说。”特鲁多试图辩称,按加拿大的标准他并无不当,并提出“各自保留意见”。随后习近平打断他说:“我们先创造条件。”然后与特鲁多握手离开。
• With Canada’s current leader, Prime Minister Mark Carney, Mr. Xi attempted to set the rules of how they should engage, saying he did not want to be criticized in public.
• 在与加拿大现任总理马克·卡尼的会面中,习近平试图设定双方互动的规则,表示他不希望受到公开批评。
• Mr. Carney said Mr. Xi told him in a recent meeting in South Korea, their first since the Canadian leader took office, to raise any issues with him in private. “He chose to spend the first 10-plus minutes discussing how he wanted the personal interaction to be,” Mr. Carney said at a Lowy Institute event in Sydney in March.
卡尼表示,习近平在不久前于韩国举行的一次会晤中告诉他(那是卡尼就任总理后两人的首次会晤),有什么问题可以私下向他提出。“他选择在开场的十多分钟时间里讨论他希望建立怎样的个人互动模式,”卡尼今年3月在悉尼洛伊研究所的一场活动上说。
• Mr. Carney summarized Mr. Xi’s message as: “No surprises. If you really care about something, be clear,” he said. He added: “I mean, he didn’t say it this way, but I interpret it. Don’t lecture me in public. Bring issues to me directly.”
卡尼总结习近平的意思是:“不要突如其来。如果你真的在意某件事,就说清楚,”他说。他又接着说道:“我的意思是,他不是这么直接说的,这是我得到的意思——不要公开对我说教,有问题直接来找我沟通。”
• While Mr. Xi may not want to be lectured, he has no problem venting to others. When Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain met with Mr. Xi in Beijing in January, the British leader brought up Chinese-Japanese relations, which are at their lowest point in years.
• 习近平或许不愿被人说教,但他并不介意向别人宣泄不满。今年1月,英国首相基尔·斯塔默在北京与习近平举行会晤,这位英国领导人提到了中日关系——目前两国关系正处于多年来的最低点。
• Mr. Xi, who had been calm throughout the meeting, grew agitated and told Mr. Starmer that the tensions were entirely Japan’s fault, according to two people familiar with the interaction, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Beijing has waged a pressure campaign against Tokyo after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan told her Parliament that Japan could respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan.
据两位要求匿名的知情人士透露,在整个会谈过程中始终保持平静的习近平变得激动起来,他告诉斯塔默,紧张局势完全是日本的错。此前,日本首相高市早苗在国会表态称,如果中国攻击台湾,日本可能予以军事回应,北京随即对东京发起了施压行动。
The Philosopher: How He Engages the Powerful
哲人:他与强国领导人的互动之道
The Chinese Communist Party seeks legitimacy by casting itself as custodian of China’s thousands-year-old civilization. Mr. Xi reinforces that tradition by carrying himself like one of China’s ancient philosopher kings whose duties included applying Confucian values to governance and statecraft.
中国共产党将自身定位为中国数千年文明的守护者,以此寻求执政合法性。习近平则摆出中国古代哲人圣君的姿态——他们以儒家价值观治国理政,以此强化了这一传统。
“In Chinese political culture, the top leader is not supposed to care about day-to-day mundane things,” said Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “They are the ‘son of heaven’ and are supposed to be engaged in philosophical matters.”
“在中国的政治文化中,最高领导人不应操心日常琐事,”外交关系委员会高级研究员刘宗媛说。“他们是‘天子’,应当关注哲学层面的事务。”
That not only amplifies a leader’s importance, but also emphasizes the greatness of Chinese culture to Western leaders hoping to change Beijing’s behavior.
这不仅强化了领导人的权威,也向那些希望改变中国行为的西方领导人彰显了中国文化的伟大。
• That was quickly apparent to President Obama during a state visit to Beijing in 2014. After a long private dinner with Mr. Xi in the walled leadership compound known as Zhongnanhai, Mr. Obama’s aides were expecting to hear that the two leaders had spoken about contentious issues like the South China Sea.
• 2014年奥巴马总统对中国进行国事访问时,这一点迅速得到了印证。在中南海与习近平进行了漫长的私人晚宴后,奥巴马的幕僚们原本以为两位领导人会谈论南中国海等争议性议题。
• “In fact, they had this kind of lengthy discussion about whether there is compatibility between individualist societies and collectivist Confucian societies,” said Mr. Rhodes, the former Obama adviser.
“但实际上,他们进行了一场关于个人主义社会与集体主义儒家社会之间是否具有兼容性的长谈,”奥巴马的前顾问本·罗兹说。
2014年,奥巴马总统与习近平在于北京举行的一次区域峰会上。
• That same elevated register shapes how Mr. Xi talks about political systems. President Biden has recounted being told by Mr. Xi that democracies “cannot be sustained in the 21st century” because they require national consensus. “It’s hard to get consensus, therefore they can’t keep up with an autocracy, one-man rule,” Mr. Biden said he was told.
• 这种高屋建瓴的谈话方式也塑造了习近平谈论政治制度的方式。拜登总统曾回忆说,习近平告诉他,民主制度“在21世纪无法持续下去”,因为它需要达成全国共识。“达成共识很难,因此民主制度赶不上威权体制、一人统治,”拜登说他听到习近平这样讲。
• Mr. Xi’s sense of imperial grandeur was caught twice on a hot mic with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. In 2023, as he was bidding farewell to the Russian leader in Moscow, Mr. Xi could be heard saying, “Right now there are changes, the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years, and we are the ones driving these changes together.”
• 习近平身上的那种帝王气度曾两次在与俄罗斯总统普京会面时被开着的麦克风捕捉到。2023年,在莫斯科与普京道别之际,习近平说了这样一句话:“这也真是百年变局之一部分,我们共同来推动。”
• Two years later at a military parade in Beijing, Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin were heard on camera discussing immortality and advances in biotechnology.
• 两年后,在北京的一场阅兵式上,习近平与普京的对话又被镜头收录——两人谈起了长生不老与生物技术的最新进展。
• “It could be that in this century humans might be able to live to 150 years old,” Mr. Xi is heard saying.
“本世纪呢,可能可以活到150岁,”习近平说道。