Japan’s shopping districts, restaurants, temples and ski resorts would normally be teeming with Chinese tourists right now as they celebrate the Lunar New Year holiday.

日本的购物区、餐馆、寺庙和滑雪胜地这个时期通常会挤满过春节假期的中国游客。

Instead, in cities like Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto, business owners say visitors from China have been scarcer this year.

然而在东京、大阪和京都等城市，商家表示今年中国游客明显减少。

The Chinese government, drawing on falsehoods and exaggerations, is aggressively discouraging its citizens from visiting Japan as part of a campaign to punish Tokyo for its support for Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that Beijing considers part of its territory.

通过散布虚假信息和夸大其词，中国政府大力劝阻本国公民赴日旅游，以此惩罚东京支持台湾——这个自治的民主地区被北京视为领土一部分。

In recent government statements and state media commentaries, Beijing has portrayed Japan as a land where people live under the constant threat of earthquakes, crime, traffic accidents and attacks by bears — and where Chinese travelers, in particular, are targeted.

在近期政府声明及官方媒体评论中，北京将日本描绘成地震、犯罪、交通事故和熊袭击威胁常在的国度——尤其中国游客在那里成了袭击的目标。

“Chinese citizens face serious security threats in Japan,” China’s foreign ministry said ahead of this week’s Lunar New Year holiday, China’s peak travel season.

“中国公民在日本面临严重安全威胁，”中国外交部在中国旅游旺季春节假期前夕如此宣称。

Beijing’s strategy of undermining Japan’s image in China as one of the world’s safest travel destinations may be working. The number of Chinese travelers to Japan has sharply declined in recent months, falling 61 percent in January from a year earlier (though the data is somewhat skewed by the timing of the Lunar New Year, which began in January last year and in February this year). Arrivals had fallen 45 percent in December.

北京旨在削弱日本作为全球最安全旅游目的地形象的策略或许正在奏效。近几个月来，赴日中国游客数量急剧下滑，1月同比下降61%（尽管数据因农历新年时间差异存在偏差——去年春节在1月，今年则在2月）。12月入境游客量下降45%。

Here’s a look at Beijing’s claims.

下面是北京的说法。

Earthquakes

地震

China has repeatedly pointed to the frequency of earthquakes in Japan to deter travel there. In December, after a powerful earthquake in northern Japan, the Chinese foreign ministry said people should avoid the country because of the risk of a tsunami or a so-called mega quake.

中国多次以日本地震频发为由劝阻民众赴日旅行。去年12月，日本北部发生强烈地震后，中国外交部表示，由于存在海啸或所谓特大地震的风险，人们应避免前往日本。

Yes, Japan sits along the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” a chain of seismologically active faults encircling the Pacific Ocean, making it one of the world’s most earthquake-prone countries. But Japan is also a global leader in dealing with earthquakes, with early warning systems and strict construction standards.

日本的确位于太平洋“火环带”沿线，这条环绕太平洋的地震活跃断层使日本成为全球地震高发国之一。但日本在应对地震方面也处于全球领先地位，拥有地震早期预警系统和严格的建筑标准。

By seizing on earthquakes, analysts said, the Chinese government is attempting to signal that its central concern is safety — not politics. In these warnings, the government rarely mentions its fierce opposition to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stance that Japan could help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

分析人士说，中国抓住地震问题不放，旨在发出信号，表明其关注的核心是安全而非政治。在这些警告中，中国政府很少提及对日本首相高市早苗若中国入侵可协助防卫台湾这一立场的强烈反对。

“A safety narrative feels more neutral and reversible, giving the Chinese government room to signal displeasure while keeping diplomatic flexibility,” said Xiao Qiang, a specialist in Chinese propaganda at the University of California, Berkeley.

加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校的中国宣传研究专家萧强说：“安全议题给人的感觉更中立、更可逆，它给了中国政府表达不满的空间，同时又保持了外交上的灵活余地。”

Targeting of Chinese Citizens

针对中国公民的袭击

China has argued that its citizens risk being targeted in Japan, tapping into a longstanding nationalist narrative rooted in the two countries’ bitter World War II history and Japan’s record of wartime atrocities.

中国指出其公民在日本有可能成为袭击目标，这植根于两国源于二战的惨痛历史，以及日本战时暴行记录的民族主义论调。

China has highlighted attacks on its citizens, including an incident reported by Japanese media this week in which a man attacked a Hong Kong resident on the head with a beer bottle in the northern city of Sapporo. China has also said, without providing specifics, that there have been cases of “unprovoked verbal abuse and physical assault” against its citizens in Japan.

中国多次强调本国公民遭遇袭击事件，其中包括日本媒体本周报道的一起事件：在日本北部城市札幌，一名男子用啤酒瓶袭击了一名香港居民的头部。中国还表示，在日本发生了针对中国公民的“无端辱骂殴打”事件，但未提供具体细节。

There is no evidence of a surge in crime or discrimination against Chinese citizens in Japan. In fact, the number of murders, robberies and arsons involving Chinese victims has declined over the past several years, according to official Japanese statistics.

没有证据表明在日本的中国公民受到的犯罪或歧视激增。事实上，根据日本官方统计，过去几年涉及中国受害者的谋杀、抢劫和纵火案数量有所下降。

China’s attempts to heighten a sense of prejudice might resonate domestically because of the emotions people still feel about World War II, said Kurt Tong, a managing partner at the Asia Group and former American diplomat.

亚洲集团管理合伙人、前美国外交官唐伟康(Kurt Tong)指出，中国试图强化偏见的做法可能在国内引发共鸣，因为民众对二战的记忆犹存。

“These emotional, interpersonal arguments could have more resonance with the Chinese public,” he said. “It plays into the nationalist idea that they’re being disrespected as a people.”

“这类诉诸情感的个人化论调更容易引起中国公众的共鸣，”他表示。“这迎合了他们作为一个民族不被尊重的民族主义思想。”

Crime, Accidents and Bears

犯罪、事故和熊

Japan has one of the lowest crime rates in the world. But you wouldn’t know that by reading Chinese media reports.

日本是世界上犯罪率最低的国家之一。但从中国媒体的报道中，你可能无从知晓这一点。

Beijing has seized on random incidents of violence in Japan as evidence of a broader safety problem, pointing, for example, to the stabbing of three teenagers this month in Osaka.

中国政府抓住日本偶然发生的暴力事件，将其作为更广泛的安全问题的证据，例如本月大阪三名青少年遭刺伤的案件。

“The security environment in some areas of Japan has been unstable, and similar vicious cases have been occurring frequently,” the Chinese consulate in Osaka said in a statement that warned citizens against traveling to Japan.

“日本部分地区治安环境不靖，类似恶性案件多发频发，”中国驻大阪领事馆在一份声明中说，该声明警告公民不要前往日本。

China has also suggested that Japan has a road safety problem, even though traffic fatalities are relatively low in the country.

中国还暗示日本存在道路安全问题，尽管该国的交通死亡事故相对较低。

Last month, the Chinese authorities highlighted an incident in which a car rammed into pedestrians along a street in Tokyo’s popular Shinjuku neighborhood. Beijing said that two Chinese nationals were seriously injured.

上个月，中国当局强调了东京著名的新宿街区发生的一起汽车冲撞行人事件。北京称，两名中国公民受重伤。

The Chinese Embassy in Japan even issued a warning about a record surge in bear attacks in the country.

中国驻日本大使馆甚至就日本熊袭击事件创纪录激增发出警告。

Experts said that Beijing would have to work hard to convince the public to forgo trips to Japan, given the love in the mainland for Japanese food, culture and products.

专家表示，鉴于中国大陆民众对日本美食、文化和产品的喜爱，北京方面需付出巨大努力才能说服公众放弃赴日旅行。

“They’re reaching for the stuff they think might get people’s attention,” Mr. Tong said. “But Japan is such an attractive place to visit. In the long term, they might not be able to keep people away.”

“他们正在寻找他们认为可能吸引人们注意的东西，”唐伟康说。“但日本是一个极具吸引力的旅游胜地。从长远来看，他们可能无法阻止民众前往。”