霍尔木兹海峡重新开放有多难？
Hundreds of oil tankers are idling at either end of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, responding to attacks by the United States and Israel, has effectively blockaded it.
数百艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡的两侧停航滞航观望。伊朗已实际封锁了该海峡，以回应美国和以色列的袭击。
As soaring oil prices rattle the global economy, President Trump has vowed to reopen the shipping route “one way or another.” But short of a deal with Iran or a dangerous, prolonged occupation, experts warn, it will be hard to fully restore traffic in the strait.
随着油价飙升震动全球经济，特朗普总统誓言“无论如何”要重新开放这条航道。但专家警告，除非与伊朗达成协议，或采取危险且漫长的占领行动，否则难以完全恢复海峡的通航。
Here’s why.
原因如下。
Geography is strategy
地理即战略
The strait is narrow and shallow, forcing ships within miles of Iran’s mountainous shores, a landscape that favors asymmetric warfare tactics, in which Iran uses weapons that are small, widely dispersed and hard for adversaries to eliminate completely.
霍尔木兹海峡狭窄而水浅，迫使船只行驶在距伊朗多山海岸线仅数英里的范围内。这种地形有利于非对称作战战术，即伊朗可以使用广泛分布且难以被对手完全清除的小型武器。
Sources: GEBCO (water depth); Vantor (satellite imagery). The New York Times
“The Iranians have thought a lot about how to utilize the geography to their benefit,” said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies Gulf security issues.
麻省理工学院海湾安全问题教授凯特琳·塔尔梅奇说：“伊朗人花了很多心思研究如何利用地理优势。”
The weapons may be relatively small, but that allows the Iranians to hide them in cliffs, caves and tunnels, and then deploy them at close range along the coastline.
这些武器可能相对较小，但这使得伊朗人能够将其隐藏在悬崖、洞穴和隧道中，然后沿海岸线近距离部署。
“The sheer proximity of Iran and width of the strait is what makes it so difficult,” said Jennifer Parker, a former naval officer now at the National Security College of Australian National University.
现就职于澳大利亚国立大学国家安全学院的前海军军官詹妮弗·帕克说：“正是因为伊朗近在咫尺，海峡又如此狭窄，才使得形势如此棘手。”
A vessel that comes under attack in the waterway doesn’t have much time to act.
任何在该水道遭受袭击的船只都没有多少反应时间。
“You have very limited time from a detection,” Ms. Parker said. “To then try and respond and take out that missile or drone, your response time, depending on the speed of it, could well be minutes.”
帕克说：“从探测到目标到做出反应，时间非常有限。之后尝试拦截并摧毁来袭导弹或无人机，根据其速度，你的响应时间很可能只有几分钟。”
Hidden firepower
隐蔽的火力
Mr. Trump has sent mixed messages about how he hopes to reopen the strait, including suggesting on Monday that he could jointly control the strait with Iran’s supreme leader. But most of the options the United States is considering involve the military.
关于如何重新开放海峡，特朗普已发出了相互冲突的信息，包括周一暗示他可能与伊朗最高领袖联合控制海峡。但美国正在考虑的大部分方案都涉及军事手段。
The first step toward opening the strait by military force would involve trying to strip away Iran’s ability to attack ships. Since the war began at the end of February, as many as 17 vessels have been struck, according to Kpler, a maritime data firm.
通过军事力量打开海峡的第一步是试图解除伊朗攻击船只的能力。据海事数据公司Kpler称，自2月底战争开始以来，已有多达17艘船只遇袭。
So far, thousands of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iranian military sites have not managed to stop the threat. It may not be possible to find and destroy every last place where Iran’s weapons are being stored, or deployed.
迄今为止，美国和以色列对伊朗军事设施发起的数千次袭击并未能阻止威胁。要找到并摧毁伊朗储存或部署武器的每一个地点或许是不可能的。
“They have many places where they could put missile batteries,” said Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel. “And because the missile batteries are mobile, it’s hard to find and target them.”
战略与国际研究中心高级顾问、退役海军陆战队上校马克·F·坎西安说：“他们有很多地方可以部署导弹发射装置。而且由于这些导弹发射架是机动的，很难发现和瞄准它们。”
Mr. Trump has called for naval escorts for commercial tankers transiting the strait. That, Mr. Cancian said, would be a major military operation.
特朗普呼吁为通过海峡的商业油轮提供海军护航。坎西安说，那将是一场大型军事行动。
“It would involve ships escorting the tankers,” he said. “There would be minesweepers to take care of any mines that might have been laid. There would be aircraft overhead to intercept any drones and to attack any missile batteries on shore.”
他说：“这需要军舰为油轮护航。需要扫雷舰来清除可能布设的水雷。还需要飞机在空中拦截无人机，并攻击岸上的导弹发射装置。”
Sending in warships to fend off drone and missile attacks brings its own risks.
派遣军舰抵御无人机和导弹攻击本身也有风险。
“The destroyer’s defensive systems are really designed for something different than the close-in knife fight of the strait,” said Eugene Gholz, an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame. “Every part of the destroyer is sensitive to being attacked.”
圣母大学政治学副教授尤金·戈尔茨说：“驱逐舰的防御系统，其设计初衷本就不是为了应对海峡内这种近距离的短兵相接。驱逐舰的每个部位在受到攻击时都很脆弱。”
But it may be mines that are the biggest threat.
但水雷可能是最大的威胁。
“If there’s a seriously credible threat of mines being in the water, that changes things completely,” said Jonathan Schroden, an expert on irregular warfare at CNA, a nonpartisan defense research institute. “No navy is going to want to put their capital ships in a waterway that is potentially or actually mined.”
无党派国防研究机构CNA的非常规战争专家乔纳森·施罗德说：“如果水雷威胁确实严重且可信，那将彻底改变局面。没有哪国海军愿意将其主力舰艇置于可能或实际已布设水雷的水道中。”
Mine-clearing operations could take weeks, and they could put U.S. sailors directly in harm’s way. The slow-moving teams would require protection themselves, including air cover.
扫雷行动可能需要数周时间，并会使美国水兵直接面临危险。行动缓慢的扫雷部队自身也需要保护，包括空中掩护。
Risks on the ground
地面风险
Marines are streaming toward the region, and experts say the Pentagon might use them to pursue ground operations to launch raids or set up air defense systems for the convoys.
海军陆战队正涌向该地区，专家表示五角大楼可能会利用他们进行地面行动，发动突袭或为护航船队部署防空系统。
Given the size of Iran’s own ground forces, the Marines may limit their incursions to islands in the strait and avoid trying to take territory on the Iranian mainland, experts say.
专家表示，鉴于伊朗自身地面部队的规模，海军陆战队可能会将其行动范围限制在海峡的岛屿，避免试图占领伊朗本土的领土。
Source: Vantor (satellite imagery). The New York Times
Even then, the risk of American losses may lead Mr. Trump to shy away from that option.
即便如此，美军可能遭受损失的风险也可能使特朗普对这一选项望而却步。
“If the ground forces are killed or captured, it changes the dynamics completely,” said Ms. Parker, the former naval officer.
前海军军官帕克说：“如果地面部队被杀或被俘，将彻底改变态势。”
The limits of success
成功的局限
Even with a major military operation, all it takes is one strike to set back confidence again.
即使是进行大规模的军事行动，也只需一次袭击就足以再次动摇信心。
Right now, most tanker operators are not risking a passage through the strait. There are nearly 500 tankers in the Persian Gulf, west of the strait, and most of them are not moving, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
目前，大多数油轮运营商不敢冒险通过海峡。据标普全球市场情报的数据，波斯湾海峡以西有近500艘油轮，其中大部分都静止不动。
To get those vessels delivering oil again, ship owners and the companies that insure the vessels would have to be convinced that escorts would provide sufficient protection.
要让这些船只恢复运输，必须说服船东和为船只投保的公司，让他们相信护航行动能提供足够的保护。
Even with companies on board and a large defensive convoy operation underway, military escorts can only provide protection for a few ships at a time. In February, before the war, around 80 oil and gas tankers were going through the Strait of Hormuz a day.
即使公司同意，并展开大规模防御性护航行动，军事护航一次也只能为少数船只提供保护。今年2月战前，每天约有80艘油气运输船通过霍尔木兹海峡。
“The important thing is to reassure the shipping companies and insurance markets that the risk is low enough for them to make it worthwhile to go through the strait,” said Kevin Rowlands, a naval expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a research group in London.
伦敦研究机构皇家联合军种研究所的海军专家凯文·罗兰兹说：“重要的是要让航运公司和保险市场相信，风险已低到足以让他们认为穿越海峡是值得的。”
A large sophisticated escort effort could also be a drain on U.S. military forces. Escort convoys could divert valuable military units away from the U.S.-Israeli air campaign and from protecting other forces in the region.
一场大规模、复杂的护航行动也可能消耗美军力量。护航船队可能会将宝贵的军事单位从美以空袭行动和对该地区其他部队的保护中抽调出来。
And because Iran has struck ships in both the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, vessels would still need protection after transiting the strait, a longer endeavor for military assets.
而且，由于伊朗在波斯湾和阿曼湾都袭击过船只，因此即使在通过海峡后，船只仍然需要保护，这对军事资源而言是更长期的任务。
“I think as long as there is a residual Iranian threat to the strait, you will see an effect on traffic,” said Ms. Talmadge. “For things to truly return to normal, it will require a diplomatic and political solution.”
塔尔梅奇说：“我认为，只要伊朗对海峡的威胁依然存在，就会对通航造成影响。要让一切真正恢复正常，需要外交和政治解决方案。”