When President Miguel Díaz-Canel of Cuba acknowledged this month that his government was engaged in secret talks with the Trump administration, he revealed that the person guiding the negotiations was the “historical leader of the revolution.”

古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔本月承认政府正与特朗普政府进行秘密谈判，并透露主导谈判的是“革命历史领袖”。

That honorific is reserved for Raúl Castro, 94, who succeeded his brother Fidel Castro as Cuba’s president from 2008 to 2018, before retreating from the public eye to project an image of a civilian transition under Mr. Díaz-Canel.

这一尊称专指94岁的劳尔·卡斯特罗。他于2008年至2018年接替兄长菲德尔·卡斯特罗担任古巴国家元首，此后淡出公众视野，彰显迪亚斯-卡内尔领导下的平民权力交接。

But with Cuba on the brink of economic collapse from a U.S. oil blockade and gripped by a worsening humanitarian crisis, other members of the Castro family have emerged from the shadows.

但在美国石油封锁导致古巴经济濒临崩溃、人道主义危机持续恶化之际，卡斯特罗家族的其他成员纷纷从幕后走向台前。

One has spoken directly with Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state. Another is taking part in the negotiations with the Trump administration. Yet another is the public face of Cuba’s groundbreaking (and tantalizing) decision to allow Cuban exiles to invest in the island.

其中一人直接与美国国务卿鲁比奥通话，另一人参与对特朗普政府谈判，还有一人则成为古巴允许流亡者回国投资这一开创性且引人遐想的决定的公开代言人。

The family’s new profile reflects a dynasty that never really exited the political scene, but instead evolved.

该家族的新形象表明，这个政治王朝从未真正退出权力舞台，只是进行了演变。

Even as Trump officials increase pressure for sweeping economic changes in Cuba and press for the removal of Mr. Díaz-Canel, Raúl Castro’s handpicked successor as president, a family long vilified by U.S. leaders is positioning new generations of Castros as the nation’s ultimate power brokers.

尽管特朗普政府加大施压，要求古巴推行全面经济改革，并施压要求拉乌尔·卡斯特罗亲自挑选的总统继任者迪亚斯-卡内尔下台，但长期遭美国领导人诋毁的卡斯特罗家族正将新一代家族成员塑造为古巴最终的权力操盘手。

“This could produce an absurd case of de-Castrofication where the family creates an illusion of change when the real power in Cuba still resides with them and other members of the post-1959 elite,” said Andrés Pertierra, a historian of Cuba at the University of Wisconsin.

“这可能上演一出荒诞的‘去卡斯特罗’戏码：家族制造出变革假象，而古巴的实际权力仍掌握在他们与1959年后的革命精英手中，”威斯康星大学古巴史学者安德烈斯·佩尔蒂埃拉表示。

The Castros have shaped Cuba’s fortunes since 1959, when Fidel and Rául Castro, the sons of a wealthy sugar plantation owner, led the revolution that toppled an old order aligned with the United States. They moved Cuba into the Soviet orbit, turning the Caribbean island into a central player in the Cold War.

自1959年以来，卡斯特罗家族便塑造着古巴的命运。当年，出身富裕甘蔗种植园主家庭的菲德尔与劳尔·卡斯特罗兄弟领导革命，推翻亲美旧秩序，将古巴纳入苏联阵营，使这座加勒比岛国成为冷战中的重要角色。

Fidel Castro, who died in 2016, was the Cuban Revolution’s charismatic “Maximum Leader.” Raúl Castro long maintained a low profile, acting as the main liaison with Moscow and the revolution’s organizational architect, prioritizing bureaucracy, clear hierarchies and administrative efficiency.

2016年去世的菲德尔·卡斯特罗是古巴革命中极具个人魅力的“最高领袖”。劳尔·卡斯特罗长期低调行事，担任对莫斯科主要联络人与革命组织架构师，他重视官僚体系、清晰的层级制度与行政效率。

The Castro brothers faced many challenges to their rule, including C.I.A. assassination plots, a decades-long U.S. embargo and the collapse of the Soviet Union, once Cuba’s main benefactor. Venezuela had replaced the Soviets, becoming Cuba’s top oil supplier, until U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January.

卡斯特罗兄弟执政期间遭遇诸多挑战，包括中情局暗杀阴谋、长达数十年的美国禁运，以及曾是古巴主要援助方的苏联解体。委内瑞拉一度取代苏联成为古巴头号石油供应国，直至今年1月美军抓获尼古拉斯·马杜罗。

Now, with the U.S. ordering Venezuela to halt oil shipments to Cuba, the family faces what may be its greatest challenge: a fuel shortage that has Cuba’s economy teetering, raising questions about the survival of the island’s repressive Communist government.

如今，在美国下令委内瑞拉停止对古巴石油输送后，该家族面临或许最严峻的考验：燃油短缺令古巴经济岌岌可危，也让人对这个岛国上专制共产主义政府的生存能力产生质疑。

The U.S. fuel blockade is intended to produce a regime pliant to U.S. demands, similar to the way Venezuela shifted from adversary to client state with the removal of Mr. Maduro.

美国的石油封锁旨在催生一个顺从美方要求的政权，如同马杜罗倒台后委内瑞拉从对手转变为附庸国的模式。

Mr. Rubio, referring to Cuba, said this month that “the people in charge, they don’t know how to fix it, so they need to get new people in charge.”

鲁比奥本月谈及古巴时称：“掌权者不懂如何解决危机，所以需要换上新的人来掌权。”

Replacing the Castros, if that is what the United States desires, is a tall order.

若美国真的意图取代卡斯特罗家族，这一目标难度极大。

Raúl Castro, who is said to remain lucid and in relatively good health for a man his age, presides over the family. Since stepping down in 2018, his prestige and power remain rooted in his status as Cuba’s most powerful military figure. As defense minister under Fidel Castro, he oversaw the creation of GAESA, a sprawling military-run business conglomerate that is Cuba’s most important economic force.

据称，以其高龄而言，头脑依然清醒、身体状况相对良好的劳尔·卡斯特罗仍然掌管着这个家族。2018年卸任后，他的威望与权力仍植根于古巴军方最高领袖的身份。在菲德尔·卡斯特罗时期担任国防部长期间，他主导创立了古巴军方旗下庞大企业集团GAESA，它也是古巴最重要的经济力量。

Raúl’s children and grandchildren have more prominent official roles in today’s Cuba than Fidel’s descendants, one of whom is an Instagram celebrity known for flaunting a life of luxury in Havana.

在当今的古巴，劳尔子孙后代的官方职位比菲德尔的后代更为显赫，菲德尔的后人中有一位是Instagram上的网红，因在哈瓦那炫耀奢华生活而闻名。

前领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗的孙子劳尔·吉列尔莫·罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗，摄于今年1月。

One of Raúl Castro’s grandsons, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, 41, has emerged as a new player in the crisis. Known as Raúlito, he is also called “El Cangrejo” — the Crab — a reference to being born with six fingers on one of his hands.

劳尔·卡斯特罗41岁的孙子劳尔·吉列尔莫·罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗已成为此次危机中的新角色。他被称作“劳尔利托”，也有“螃蟹”的绰号，源于天生一只手有六根手指。

Mr. Rodriguez Castro has been part of his grandfather’s security detail, but these days mostly serves as his personal aide. He was once a fixture in Cuba’s elite social circles, hanging out with popular musicians such as the Charanga Habanera, who attended his 2008 wedding at an elite military club.

罗德里格斯·卡斯特罗曾是其祖父安保团队成员，如今主要担任祖父的私人助理。他曾是古巴精英社交圈常客，与哈瓦那查兰加乐队等古巴音乐人交往密切，该乐队曾出席他2008年在一家精英军事俱乐部举行的婚礼。

Now Raúlito also has a role as a messenger in the negotiations with the Trump administration, meeting with Mr. Rubio’s team at a recent event in St. Kitts and Nevis where Caribbean nations had convened.

如今，劳尔利托还担任对特朗普政府谈判的联络人，近期在加勒比国家召开的圣基茨和尼维斯会议上与鲁比奥团队会面。

Stunning those who had grown accustomed to his operating behind the scenes, Raúlito appeared this month on state television sitting alongside the regime’s highest-ranking members when Mr. Díaz-Canel disclosed the talks with Washington.

外界已经习惯了他在幕后行事，然而令人震惊的是，本月迪亚斯-卡内尔披露对美谈判消息时，劳尔利托出现在国家电视台画面中，与该政权最高层官员并肩而坐。

Raúl’s only son, Alejandro Castro Espín, 60, is also resurfacing after largely disappearing from public life when his father stepped down as president. An engineer educated and trained in Cuba and the Soviet Union, and a brigadier general in Cuba’s army, he has held leadership roles in Cuba’s intelligence apparatus and has written books critical of the United States such as “The Empire of Terror.”

劳尔·卡斯特罗60岁的独子亚历杭德罗·卡斯特罗·埃斯平在父亲卸任总统后基本淡出公众视野，如今也重新现身。他是在古巴与苏联接受教育和培训的工程师，拥有古巴陆军准将军衔，曾在古巴情报机构担任领导职务，并著有《恐怖帝国》(The Empire of Terror)等批评美国的书籍。

Now General Castro Espín is also taking a leading part in the talks with U.S. officials, according to news media reports.Such a role is not new for him; in 2014 he led Cuba’s side in secret talks with the Obama administration that produced a brief thaw in relations with the United States.

据媒体报道，卡斯特罗·埃斯平准将目前也在对美官员谈判中发挥着主导作用。这一角色对他而言并非首次：2014年，他曾率领古巴团队与奥巴马政府进行秘密谈判，促成美古关系短暂解冻。

2016年，亚历杭德罗·卡斯特罗·埃斯平在古巴圣斯皮里图斯省。

Another Castro family member suddenly rising in prominence is Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, 54, a soft-spoken engineer and grandnephew of Raúl and Fidel Castro. He is currently Cuba’s deputy prime minister and minister of foreign trade and foreign investment.

另一位突然崭露头角的卡斯特罗家族成员是54岁的奥斯卡·佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加，他是一位言辞温和的工程师，也是劳尔与菲德尔·卡斯特罗的侄孙。他现任古巴副总理兼外贸与外国投资部长。

Mr. Pérez-Oliva leaped into the spotlight this month after announcing potentially one of the biggest policy shifts since the Castros seized power in 1959: allowing Cuban exiles to own businesses and invest in Cuba.

本月，佩雷斯-奥利瓦宣布了1959年卡斯特罗掌权以来最重大的政策转向之一：允许古巴流亡者在古巴拥有企业并进行投资，他由此一举成为焦点。

That showcased Mr. Pérez-Oliva as a public face of the regime’s survival strategy. It also ignited talk about whether he could be the Cuban version of Venezuela’s new Trump-friendly leader, Delcy Rodríguez, a younger insider more amenable to the United States who can speak the language of international business and yield to Washington’s demands.

这一举措凸显了佩雷斯-奥利瓦成为政权生存策略的公开代言人形象，也让人们开始议论他是否会成为古巴版的德尔西·罗德里格斯——后者是委内瑞拉亲特朗普的新任领导人，是一位更年轻、对美态度缓和、通晓国际商业语言、愿意顺从华盛顿要求的内部人士。

Those attributes, along with not having “Castro” in his name, could make him palatable to an administration in Washington that prizes regime compliance over regime collapse, some political analysts say.

部分政治分析人士认为，这些特质，加上他的姓氏中没有“卡斯特罗”，可能让他更易被华盛顿政府接受——华盛顿更看重政权的顺从，而非令政权垮台。

At the same time, his family ties could allow him to shore up political support among those within Cuba’s power structures who view the Castros as a source of stability and revolutionary legitimacy.

与此同时，佩雷斯-奥利瓦的家族纽带能帮助他在古巴权力结构内部争取支持，这些人将卡斯特罗家族视为稳定与革命合法性的来源。

2016年，载有菲德尔·卡斯特罗遗体的灵车行经哈瓦那市中心。

The involvement of so many Castros in the regime’s survival strategy underscores one of the Cuban Revolution’s contradictions: While its Communist leaders sought to create a classless, egalitarian society, many of them become members of an elite class.

如此多的卡斯特罗家族成员参与政权生存策略，凸显出古巴革命的一大矛盾：尽管其共产党领导人致力于建立一个无阶级的平等社会，但他们中许多人却成为精英阶层一员。

Still, the possibility of the family at the helm of Cuba’s authoritarian political system retaining its power would disillusion many Cuban exiles in the United States. Some have been pushing for decades for the Castros to be completely sidelined, along with erasing any Communist influence in Cuba.

即便如此，若这个掌控古巴威权政治体系的家族仍能保住权力，仍会让许多旅居美国的古巴流亡者感到理想破灭。数十年来，部分流亡者一直推动彻底清除卡斯特罗家族势力，抹去古巴境内一切共产主义影响。

The Castros are known as shrewd negotiators, extricating themselves from tough spots in the past, said Ricardo Zúniga, a former U.S. official who helped broker former President Barack Obama’s opening with Cuba and also served under President Trump.

曾协助促成奥巴马政府与古巴关系破冰、并在特朗普政府任职的前美国官员里卡多·苏尼加表示，卡斯特罗家族以精明的谈判者著称，过往多次从困境中脱身。

The Obama talks took 18 months, partly because the meetings were held in secret, mostly in Canada, and the negotiating teams were tiny.

奥巴马时期的谈判耗时18个月，部分原因是会谈秘密进行，主要在加拿大，且谈判团队规模极小。

Those expecting a Venezuela-style outcome in Cuba could also be surprised. Venezuela’s political elite, divided into camps with different economic objectives, was relatively fractious before the capture of Mr. Maduro, making it easier for Trump officials to settle on someone like Ms. Rodríguez, a technocrat who had already introduced market-oriented reforms aimed at improving Venezuela’s economy.

那些期待古巴出现委内瑞拉式结局的人可能会大为意外。在马杜罗被捕前，委内瑞拉政治精英分裂为不同经济目标的派系，内部分裂严重，令特朗普政府更容易选定罗德里格斯这样的技术官僚，她此前已推行了旨在改善委内瑞拉经济的市场导向改革。

奥斯卡·佩雷斯-奥利瓦·弗拉加（中）于2024年在哈瓦那出席新闻发布会。

Cuba’s elite, in contrast, is far more cohesive after decades of purges and counterintelligence operations that detected even the smallest signs of dissent. Members of the Castro family have consistently benefited from this system.

相比之下，历经数十年清洗与反情报行动——这些行动连最微小的异见迹象都能察觉——古巴精英阶层凝聚力要强得多。卡斯特罗家族成员一直从这一体系中获益。

“There’s no opposition waiting on the wings and no one like Delcy,” Mr. Zúniga said. Even amid so many challenges, that crucial difference could strengthen the Castros’ hand as they explore ways to hold onto power.

“没有蓄势待发的反对派，也没有德尔西式的人物，”苏尼加表示。即便面临重重挑战，这一关键差异仍能增强卡斯特罗家族在寻求保住权力时的筹码。

“The elements are in place,” he said, “where you could imagine them trying to transition from a revolutionary oligarchy to a capitalist oligarchy.”

“条件已经具备，”他说，“你可以想象，他们正试图从革命寡头政治转向资本主义寡头政治。”