A grinding war in Iran has so severely drained American firepower that Chinese analysts are openly questioning Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan. That shifting calculus threatens to undercut President Trump’s leverage in his high-stakes summit next week with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.

陷入胶着的伊朗战争已经严重消耗了美国的火力，以至于中国分析人士开始公开质疑华盛顿保卫台湾的能力。这种战略评估上的变化可能削弱特朗普总统下周与中国最高领导人习近平举行重要峰会时的筹码。

Since the war began in late February, the United States has burned through around half of its long-range stealth cruise missiles and fired off roughly 10 times the number of Tomahawk cruise missiles it currently buys each year, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials.

据国防部内部估算及国会官员称，自2月底战争爆发以来，美国已消耗了约一半的远程隐身巡航导弹，发射的战斧巡航导弹数量约为目前年采购量的10倍。

To some Chinese military and geopolitical analysts, the war has done more than deplete U.S. munitions stockpiles, it has also shattered America’s aura of dominance. They argue that it has exposed a major flaw in U.S. war strategy: its inability to make weapons quickly enough to replenish its arsenal in a sustained, intense conflict.

在一些中国军事与地缘政治分析人士看来，这场战争的影响不止于大量消耗了美国的弹药库存，还动摇了美国长期以来的主导威势。他们认为，这暴露出美国战争战略中的一个重大缺陷：在持续的高强度冲突中，其武器生产速度远跟不上消耗速度。

This depletion “has significantly diminished the U.S. military’s ability to project its combat power, laying bare the shortcomings of its global military hegemony,” said Yue Gang, a retired colonel of the People’s Liberation Army, in an interview.

火力消耗“极大削弱美军战力的发挥，美军全球军事霸主的短板毕现”，中国人民解放军退役上校岳刚在接受采访时表示。

Such arguments help fuel a narrative among hawkish Chinese commentators, and potentially in the government, that American forces could no longer effectively defend Taiwan should the United States and China ever go to war over the self-governed island. The logic of Chinese nationalists is that since the United States has been unable to achieve a quick victory against Iran, a regional military power, then it would most likely have even less success against China, which the analysts see as a peer competitor.

这种论断助长了中国的鹰派评论人士乃至可能是政府内部的一种叙事：一旦中美因台湾爆发战争，美军将无力对这个自治岛屿实施有效防御。中国民族主义者的逻辑是：既然连伊朗这样的地区军事强国都无法迅速取胜，面对这些分析人士看来势均力敌的竞争对手中国，美国恐怕更难取得成功。

5月，德黑兰的一幅宣传画描绘了对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁。伊朗战争已严重消耗了美军在全球范围内的弹药储备。

From this perspective, the U.S. impasse with Iran weakens Mr. Trump’s position going into talks with Mr. Xi next week.

从这一角度看，美国在伊朗的僵局削弱了特朗普下周与习近平会谈时的地位。

“Trump originally intended to visit China with the air of a swift victor, leveraging his position to increase pressure on China,” Mr. Yue said. “Now, however, with the conflict deadlocked and the military campaign stalled, he finds himself in a difficult position.”

“特朗普原意挟速胜之姿态强势访华，借力打力，增大施压中国筹码，”岳刚说。“如今战况僵局骑虎难下。”

Mr. Trump, he added, “will be unable to project the same arrogance.”

他还表示，特朗普“气焰难张”。

Mr. Trump is expected to seek deals with Mr. Xi to help reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China. That could include pledges by Beijing to buy more American soybeans and Boeing planes. Mr. Trump will also press Mr. Xi about China’s continued purchases of Iranian oil, Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.

预计特朗普将寻求与习近平达成协议，以帮助减少美国对华贸易逆差。这可能包括北京承诺购买更多美国大豆和波音飞机。美国贸易代表格里尔周三接受彭博电视采访时表示，特朗普还将就中国继续购买伊朗石油一事向习近平施压。

China, for its part, wants to stabilize ties with the Trump administration and extend the trade truce in order to focus on revitalizing its economy and developing its own technologies.

中国方面则希望稳定与特朗普政府的关系，并延长贸易休战，以便集中精力重振经济、发展本国技术。

Beijing wants the Trump administration to reduce its support for Taiwan. Mr. Xi warned Mr. Trump in February that China would “never allow Taiwan to be separated from China,” as he urged him to handle U.S. arms sales to the island with “prudence.” (The Trump administration has since delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan to avoid upsetting Mr. Xi.)

北京还希望特朗普政府减少对台湾的支持。习近平今年2月曾警告特朗普，中国“永远不可能让台湾分离出去”，并敦促他“慎重”处理对台军售问题。（此后，特朗普政府推迟宣布一项对台军售计划，以避免激怒习近平。）

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has hinted that Beijing could be seeking some kind of a breakthrough. In a phone call last month with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Mr. Wang called for China and the United States to “open up new space” on the Taiwan issue, though he did not go into specifics.

中国最高外交官王毅也暗示，北京或许正寻求某种突破。上个月与美国国务卿鲁比奥通话时，王毅呼吁中美两国在台湾问题上“打开新的空间”，不过他并未进一步说明具体内容。

China Sees a Declining Power

中国视美国为衰落大国

Ahead of the summit, both countries have tried to maintain a neutral, if uneasy, calm. China has treaded a careful line in discussing the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, a conflict it says it opposed from the beginning. The closest Mr. Xi has come to criticizing Mr. Trump, without naming him, was to denounce the flouting of international law as a “return to the law of the jungle.”

峰会前，两国都试图维持一种不温不火的状态，虽然有些许紧张气氛。中国在讨论美以对伊朗的战争时保持谨慎，称从一开始就反对这场冲突。习近平谴责无视国际法是“倒回丛林法则”，这是在未点名特朗普的情况下最接近批评的表述。

The effort to play nice, for now, could explain why Chinese state news outlets have been guarded in their comments about America’s military vulnerabilities as a result of the war in Iran.

目前这种“示好”的努力或许可以解释，为什么中国官方媒体在评论伊朗战争导致美国军事脆弱性时保持克制。

Reports and commentaries note the depletion of missiles and shifting of U.S. resources, but generally stop short of framing the war as strategically beneficial for China, said Manoj Kewalramani, the head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore, India, who monitors Chinese media.

印度班加罗尔塔克沙什拉研究所印太研究负责人马诺吉·凯瓦尔拉马尼表示，中国媒体的报道和评论注意到了导弹消耗和美国资源转移，但通常不会将这场战争描述为对中国具有战略利益。

One notable exception was an essay in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s leading theoretical journal, which argued that “the conflict has overdrawn U.S. strategic resources, potentially leaving the country in a precarious position.” Another was an editorial from Global Times, a Communist Party-controlled nationalist newspaper, that said if the U.S. military was unable to deploy weapons around the world, it would be a “giant with a limp.”

例外情况包括首要的中共理论期刊《求是》的一篇文章，称“冲突使美国战略资源透支，恐陷进退失据”。另一篇是中共民族主义报纸《环球时报》的社论，称如果美国军队无法在全球部署武器，它将是一个“跛脚的巨人”。

中国官方媒体提供的一张照片显示，本周中国与伊朗官员在北京会面。美国已敦促中国向伊朗施压，要求其重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

Hu Xijin, the influential former editor of Global Times, said the U.S. munitions supply chain challenges that the war had exposed gave Beijing not only a material edge, but also a psychological one in any potential war over Taiwan.

《环球时报》前主编胡锡进表示，战争暴露的美国弹药供应链问题不仅给北京在潜在台海战争中带来物质优势，还带来了心理优势。

“If we view the situation as a strategic game of confidence between China and the U.S. over the Taiwan Strait — a game of chess, so to speak — the United States is on the verge of losing all its pieces,” Mr. Hu said in an interview.

胡锡进在接受采访时说：“如果说中美在围绕台海进行战略自信的博弈是下一盘棋，美国的棋子都快被吃光了。”

But China’s Military Has Problems, Too

但中国军队自身也存在问题

The White House and American military officials reject the notion that operations in the Middle East have undermined Washington’s posture in Asia. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said that deterring China “through strength” was among the Defense Department’s four top priorities.

白宫和美国军方官员否认中东行动削弱了华盛顿在亚洲的态势。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯表示，通过“实力”威慑中国是国防部的四大优先事项之一。

Asked during a Senate hearing last month if resources being diverted to the Middle East was weakening U.S. military readiness in the Pacific, Adm. Samuel J. Paparo Jr., the head of the military’s Indo-Pacific Command, said, “I don’t see any real cost being imposed on our ability to deter China.”

上个月在参议院听证会上，当被问及向中东转移资源是否会削弱美国在太平洋的战备时，印太司令部司令塞缪尔·J·帕帕罗二世上将表示：“我没有看到这对我们威慑中国的能力造成任何实际损失。”

To be sure, questions abound about China’s own military readiness. Not only has the People’s Liberation Army been untested in major combat for nearly five decades, its top leadership has been thrown into disarray by political purges and a crackdown on corruption.

中国自身的军事准备无疑也存在诸多疑问。人民解放军近五十年未经历过大规模实战，其高层领导因政治清洗和反腐行动陷入混乱。

张又侠（前排）曾是中国军队的最高级现役将领。在一场针对军队内部腐败与不忠诚行为的大规模整肃行动中，他与多名将军一同遭清洗。

By comparison, the U.S. military showcased its potency by killing Tehran’s leaders, establishing control of the skies over Iran and sending special forces into enemy territory to rescue a downed pilot.

相比之下，通过击毙德黑兰领导人、掌控伊朗上空并派遣特种部队进入敌方领土营救坠机飞行员，美国军队展示了其作战能力。

“The United States has very successfully demonstrated its wartime capabilities in a way that China should consider credible,” said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official who is now a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

前五角大楼官员、现任新加坡拉惹勒南国际关系学院高级研究员德鲁·汤普森表示：“美国以一种中国应当视为可信的方式成功展示了其战时能力。”

Mr. Thompson also cautioned against comparing the conflict in Iran to a war over Taiwan. In a defense of the island, the United States would largely rely on anti-ship missiles, which were used sparingly on Iran, to target a Chinese invasion fleet.

汤普森也警告不要将伊朗冲突与台海战争直接类比。在保卫台湾时，美国将主要依赖反舰导弹（这些导弹在伊朗战场使用较少）来打击中国入侵舰队。

Sending a Message to U.S. Allies

向美国盟友传递信息

Even without going to war, China can point to the complications the Trump administration is facing and argue to U.S. allies in Asia that Washington cannot be relied upon as a security guarantor.

即使不发生战争，中国也可以指出特朗普政府面临的困境，并向亚洲的美国盟友辩称，华盛顿无法再被视为可靠的安全保障者。

“When allies face uncertainties over deployments and delayed equipment, it inevitably raises questions about the reliability and consistency of U.S. security assurances in the region,” said Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University.

北京大学中外人文交流研究基地执行主任王栋表示：“对部署和装备交付产生不确定性时，盟友不可避免地会质疑美国在该地区安全承诺的可靠性和一致性。”

The United States, he added, “is encountering the limits of its global military footprint”

他补充说，美国“全球军事足迹正在达到极限”。

China may ultimately be emboldened by the war in Iran to become more assertive in Asia using gray-zone tactics — aggressive moves that fall short of inciting all-out war. Over the last few months, for example, China has been building an island in disputed waters off the coast of Vietnam that will help it gain more control of the South China Sea.

伊朗战争最终可能鼓励中国在亚洲更加大胆地使用灰色地带战术——即那些不会引发全面战争的进攻性行动。例如，过去几个月，中国一直在越南沿海争议水域建造一座岛屿，以加强对南海的控制。

今年4月拍摄的越南海岸附近羚羊礁卫星图像。通过建设这样的人工岛屿，中国得以扩大在南海争议海域的控制范围。

Beijing is unlikely to expedite plans to invade Taiwan, said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

战略与国际研究中心“中国实力”项目研究员布赖恩·哈特表示，北京不太可能加快入侵台湾的计划。

Any such plan would be based primarily on “political factors” like a sudden move by the island territory to declare formal independence, he said.

他说，任何此类计划都将主要基于“政治因素”，例如台湾突然宣布正式独立等举动。