A measure of inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve accelerated in April to a three-year high, reinforcing the central bank’s budding support to consider raising interest rates if price pressures do not ease.

美联储密切关注的一项通胀指标在4月加速升至三年来的高点，这进一步增强了该央行内部正在萌生的一种立场：如果价格压力没有缓解，将考虑加息。

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 3.8 percent from the same time last year. It was the fastest annual pace since May 2023, when the Fed was in the midst of raising rates to tame a burst of inflation that had emerged in the wake of the pandemic.

个人消费支出指数(PCE)同比上涨3.8%。这是自2023年5月以来的最快年增速，当时美联储正处于加息周期之中，以平息疫情后爆发的通胀。

A measure of underlying inflation that strips out volatile food and energy prices also notched a multiyear high. That measure, “core” inflation, increased at an annual pace of 3.3 percent, the fastest since November 2023.

剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格后的潜在通胀指标也创下了多年来的新高。这一指标被称为“核心”通胀，以3.3%的年增长率上升是自2023年11月以来的最快增速。

On a monthly basis, inflation rose slightly less than expected. Overall prices jumped 0.4 percent and those excluding food and energy prices ticked up 0.2 percent.

按月计算，通胀涨幅略低于预期。整体价格上涨了0.4%，而剔除食品和能源价格的核心价格微升了0.2%。

That was a welcome reprieve, but on the whole, the latest data, which the Commerce Department released on Thursday, underscored the difficult position that officials at the central bank are now in with price pressures intensifying because of the war with Iran.

这是一个令人欣慰的喘息之处，但总体而言，美国商务部周四发布的最新数据凸显了央行官员们目前所处的困境，因为与伊朗的战争导致价格压力正在加剧。

This month, the Consumer Price Index, another inflation gauge, also showed that consumer prices had risen at the fastest pace since May 2023.

本月，另一项通胀指标——消费者价格指数(CPI)也显示，消费者价格正以自2023年5月以来的最快速度上涨。

Consumers have started to moderate their spending in the face of resurgent prices, according to Thursday’s data. Spending, once adjusted for inflation, rose just 0.1 percent in April, as incomes flatlined and the savings rate dropped to the lowest level since June 2022.

根据周四的数据，面对反弹的物价，消费者已经开始节制开支。经通胀调整后，4月份的支出仅增长了0.1%，同时收入停滞不前，储蓄率降至2022年6月以来的最低水平。

The Commerce Department also revised lower its assessment of growth in the first quarter, noting that the economy expanded 1.6 percent on an inflation-adjusted basis compared with its initial estimate of 2 percent.

商务部还下调了对第一季度经济增长的评估，指出经通胀调整后，经济增长了1.6%，而最初的估计为2%。

The war, which began in late February, has severely disrupted global energy markets, raising the urgency of a deal between President Trump and Iranian officials. No agreement has emerged, however, and renewed hostilities in recent days have dimmed hopes that a crucial shipping pathway, the Strait of Hormuz, will be reopened soon.

这场始于2月下旬的战争严重扰乱了全球能源市场，这增加了特朗普总统与伊朗官员达成协议的紧迫性。然而，目前尚未达成任何协议，而且近日战火重燃，使得关键航运通道霍尔木兹海峡很快重新开放的希望变得渺茫。

The Fed typically ignores or “looks through” supply shocks because they historically tend to affect prices only temporarily. John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, appeared to back this approach in remarks on Thursday. He acknowledged that continuing supply chain disruptions caused by the war were worrisome, but he estimated that the impact on inflation could peak in a few months.

美联储通常会忽略或“看淡”供应冲击，因为从历史上看，它们对价格的影响往往只是暂时的。纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯在周四的讲话中似乎支持这种做法。他承认，战争造成的持续供应链中断令人担忧，但他估计对通胀的影响可能会在几个月内达峰。

But other officials have begun to question whether the look-through approach is the right one, given that the war with Iran is the fourth shock in five years to push inflation further from the Fed’s 2 percent target. The U.S. economy has weathered a series of events that have raised prices, including the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Mr. Trump’s global trade war.

但其他官员已经开始质疑这种“看淡”的做法是否正确，因为与伊朗的战争已经是五年来第四次导致通胀进一步偏离美联储2%目标的冲击。美国经济已经经历了一系列推高价格的事件，包括新冠疫情、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，以及特朗普的全球贸易战。

Since 2021, inflation has been higher than the central bank would like. Expectations about inflation in the next five or 10 years still reflect confidence that the central bank will eventually succeed in bringing inflation down to 2 percent. But the longer inflation stays above that target, the more likely that confidence could begin to ebb.

自2021年以来，通胀水平一直高于央行的预期。对未来五年或10年通胀的预期仍然反映出人们对央行最终成功将通胀降至2%充满信心。但通胀高于该目标的时间越长，这种信心就越有可能开始动摇。。

With the labor market on firmer footing than just a couple of months ago, more Fed officials have embraced the possibility that rates may need to rise to get inflation fully under control.

由于劳动力市场比几个月前更加稳固，越来越多的美联储官员接受了这样一种可能性：可能需要加息才能将通胀完全控制住。

“I want to be clear about my risk assessment: The risks remain tilted toward ⁠higher inflation,” said Lisa D. Cook, a Fed governor, in remarks on Wednesday. “I am prepared to raise rates, if the expected disinflation does not appear in a timely manner.”

“关于我的风险评估，我想明确一点：风险仍然倾向于通胀走高，”美联储理事丽莎·库克在周三的讲话中表示。“如果预期的通胀回落没有及时出现，我准备支持加息。”

That followed a speech last week from Christopher J. Waller, another governor, who made clear that he could “no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon.” That, he added, was “especially true if measures of inflation expectations, some of which have risen lately, show signs of becoming unanchored.”

在此之前，另一位理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在上周的演讲中也明确表示，如果通胀“近期未能缓解”，他“不能再排除未来进一步加息的可能性”。他还说，“如果衡量通胀预期的指标——其中一些最近有所上升——显示出脱离锚定的迹象，那就更是如此。”

The specter of higher rates comes amid a leadership transition at the Fed. Kevin M. Warsh, whom Mr. Trump picked to replace Jerome H. Powell as chair, was sworn in to the top job at the Fed last week. Mr. Trump has long berated the Fed for not lowering rates quickly enough.

加息的阴影正值美联储领导层交接之际出现。特朗普挑选凯文·沃什接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任主席，沃什已于上周宣誓就任美联储最高职位。长期以来，特朗普一直斥责美联储降息不够迅速。

Mr. Trump has hinted he will try to ease up on his pressure campaign now that Mr. Warsh is at the helm. At Friday’s swearing-in ceremony, which was held at the White House for the first time since 1987, the president said he wanted Mr. Warsh to be “totally independent.”

特朗普曾暗示，既然现在由沃什掌舵，他将试图减轻对美联储的施压。在周五的宣誓就职仪式上——这是该仪式自1987年以来首次在白宫举行——总统表示，他希望沃什能够“完全独立”。

But that leeway could quickly disappear, especially if the Fed begins to more seriously consider rate increases, which would make all types of borrowing more expensive.

但这种回旋余地可能会迅速消失，尤其是如果美联储开始更认真地考虑加息，这将使各类借款成本上升。

Traders in federal funds futures markets expect the central bank to eventually raise rates early next year.

联邦基金期货市场的交易员预计，美联储最终将在明年初加息。