As Ebola spreads in East Africa, the United States is playing a much smaller role than it has in previous outbreaks. That leaves China, an economic powerhouse with epidemic control and biotech expertise, as the next global power that could commit supplies, money and medical workers to the effort.

埃博拉病毒在东非蔓延，而美国发挥的作用远小于以往疫情爆发时。这使得中国——拥有流行病控制和生物技术专业知识的经济强国——成为下一个能够为抗疫投入物资、资金和医疗人员的全球大国。

In Mongbwalu, a town in the Democratic Republic of Congo that is the epicenter of the outbreak, treatment centers are in dire need of equipment, medicine and basic supplies. A lack of testing has made it harder to slow the spread of the Bundibugyo virus, which caused the outbreak and for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment.

在此次疫情的中心刚果民主共和国的蒙布瓦卢镇，治疗中心极度缺乏设备、药品和基本物资。由于缺乏检测，减缓本迪布焦病毒的传播变得更加困难。正是这种病毒引发了此次疫情，且目前尚无获批的疫苗或治疗方法。

But despite Beijing’s significant investments in the region, it is unclear how much China is willing to do to help confront what could become the deadliest Ebola outbreak in history. With the United States playing a sharply diminished role compared with its emergency response in the pre-Trump era, China faces less competitive pressure to step up. And Beijing, ever cautious, is not likely to jump in quickly to help contain an outbreak in a remote, conflict-ridden region.

但是，尽管北京在该地区进行了重大投资，目前尚不清楚中国愿意提供多少帮助来应对这场可能成为史上最致命的埃博拉疫情。与特朗普时代之前的紧急响应相比，美国的作用已大幅减弱，中国面临的竞争压力也随之降低。一向谨慎的北京不太可能迅速介入，在这个偏远且冲突不断的地区帮助遏制疫情。

“Now we are in this moment of truth,” said Bradley Parks, executive director of AidData, a research lab at William & Mary.

“现在我们正处于关键时刻，”威廉玛丽学院研究实验室AidData的执行主任布拉德利·帕克斯说。

For China, this crisis is “really going to force them to answer the question: ‘Do we just let this thing run wild and let there essentially be a leadership vacuum, or do we step into the breach?’” he said. “We just don’t know if they have the appetite to step into a leadership role.”

他说，对中国而言，这场危机“确实会迫使他们回答这个问题：‘我们是任由这东西肆虐，让领导力出现实质上真空，还是挺身而出填补空白？’我们只是不知道他们是否有意愿承担领导角色。”

China took a tentative first step this week, almost three weeks after the outbreak was declared. It sent a five-person team of medical experts to Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, more than 1,000 miles from the center of the outbreak.

在疫情宣布暴发近三周后，中国在本周迈出了试探性的第一步，向距离疫情中心约1600公里的刚果首都金沙萨派遣了一个由五人组成的医疗专家组。

中国医疗队成员于周二抵达刚果民主共和国首都金沙萨，照片由官方媒体发布。

They brought with them protective equipment and lab supplies. Lu Ming, the head of the mission, told state media China was “fulfilling its duties as a major power.”

他们随身携带了防护设备和实验室用品。代表团团长陆明对国家媒体表示，中国是在“履行大国责任”。

At the same time, Beijing has not yet publicly responded to an official African appeal for $319 million in aid. Its officials are not on a World Health Organization committee addressing the outbreak.

与此同时，北京尚未公开回应非洲官方提出的3.19亿美元援助呼吁。中国官员也没有出现在世界卫生组织应对此次疫情的委员会中。

Jin Jiyong, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University who studies global health, said he was confident China would beef up its efforts if the outbreak worsened.

上海外国语大学研究全球健康问题的晋继勇教授表示，他相信如果疫情恶化，中国将加大援助力度。

“I do think it’s a good opportunity for China to show its strengths and ambitions” particularly in public health, research and medicine, he said.

“我确实认为这是中国展示潜力和抱负的一个好机会，”他说，特别是在公共卫生、研究和医学领域。

In many ways, China is well positioned to help.

在许多方面，中国具备提供帮助的良好条件。

China, with its enormous manufacturing base, can quickly produce and ship medical supplies. It provided much of the personal protective equipment sent to Africa during the Covid pandemic. Chinese biotechnology companies, which are developing affordable and easily adaptable medical innovations, could contribute new tests and vaccines.

凭借庞大的制造业基础，中国能够迅速生产和运输医疗物资。在新冠疫情期间，运往非洲的大部分个人防护设备都是由中国提供的。中国生物技术公司正在开发价格低廉且易于适应的医疗创新产品，有望提供新的检测方法和疫苗。

During the world’s worst Ebola outbreak, which ravaged West Africa between 2014 and 2016, China mounted its largest-ever overseas humanitarian effort, sending more than $100 million worth of supplies, including ambulances, and hundreds of medical workers. For the first time, China built a biosafety lab and an infectious disease medical center overseas.

在2014年至2016年肆虐西非的全球最严重埃博拉疫情期间，中国发起了其有史以来规模最大的海外人道主义救援行动，运送了价值超过1亿美元的物资（包括救护车），并派遣了数百名医疗工作者。中国首次在海外建立了一个生物安全实验室和一个传染病医疗中心。

2015年，在蒙罗维亚的一处中国埃博拉治疗点举行的仪式。在2014年至2016年的埃博拉疫情期间，中国向包括利比里亚在内的三个国家提供了援助。

China also moved more quickly then. It took only a day after the W.H.O. declared that outbreak a global health emergency for Beijing to announce it would send help. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, himself expressed support to the countries hit by the virus.

那时中国的行动也更为迅速。在世卫组织宣布那次疫情为全球突发公共卫生事件后，北京仅用了一天时间就宣布将提供帮助。中国领导人习近平亲自向遭受病毒打击的国家表达了支持。

But that was a different time, said Zhida Shang, a resident doctor at the University of Toronto who has studied China’s participation in the W.H.O. “It was pre-Covid,” he said. “Everyone still had a brighter vision for global health.”

但那是一个不同的时期，多伦多大学研究中国参与世卫组织事务的住院医生尚志达（音）说。“那是新冠疫情之前，”他说。“每个人对全球健康都都抱有更美好的憧憬。”

“I believe the Chinese leadership really wanted to show both the world and their own domestic population that, ‘Hey, look, there’s a crisis in the world. We’re going in. We’re going to help them. We’ll be the heroes,’” Dr. Shang said.

“我相信，当时中国领导层真的很想向世界和本国人民表明：‘嘿，看啊，世界上发生了危机。我们要参与进去。我们要去帮助他们。我们要成为英雄，’”尚志达说。

Stephen Morrison, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said China could again deploy health workers. During that outbreak he visited a Chinese-run Ebola ward in Liberia and was impressed. “They were very well organized and very professional and very proud of what they were doing,” he said.

战略与国际问题研究中心高级副总裁史蒂芬·莫里森表示，中国可能会再次派遣卫生工作者。在那次疫情期间，他参观了利比里亚一个由中国运营的埃博拉病房，那里给他留下了深刻印象。“他们组织得井井有条，非常专业，对自己的工作非常自豪，”他说。

China’s booming biotech sector could play a role.

中国蓬勃发展的生物技术产业可能发挥重要作用。

Twelve years later, China is wealthier, with a greater presence in Africa. It has a strong relationship with the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, whose headquarters it helped build. After Covid, China also has more experience responding to epidemics.

12年后，中国更加富裕，在非洲的存在感也更强了。中国与非洲疾病预防控制中心建立了密切的关系，并帮助该中心建设了总部。在新冠疫情之后，中国应对流行病的经验也更加丰富。

Its most significant contribution to fighting the current outbreak may come from its booming biotechnology industry. China is a leader in testing technologies, including adaptable machines that can screen for many diseases, and tests to identify a pathogen that can be used at a patient’s bedside, said Sonjelle Shilton, who works on access to diagnostics for the aid group Doctors Without Borders. That could eliminate the need to transport samples to central labs — in Congo’s case, across hundreds of miles and through an active conflict zone.

中国在抗击当前疫情方面最重要的贡献或将来自其蓬勃发展的生物技术产业。援助组织无国界医生负责诊断技术获取工作的桑杰尔·希尔顿表示，中国在检测技术方面处于领先地位，包括可以筛查多种疾病的自适应仪器，以及可在患者床边使用的病原体检测试剂。这可以避免将样本运往中央实验室的必要性——在刚果，将样本运往中央实验室意味着要跨越数百公里，并穿过活跃的冲突区。

Chinese companies have been developing diagnostics that can detect multiple viruses in the Ebola family, she said. Such a test might have sped up response to this outbreak, since health workers who first suspected Ebola had tests to detect only a different species of the virus.

她说，中国公司一直在开发可以检测埃博拉病毒家族中多种病毒的诊断技术。这样的检测本可能加快对这次疫情的响应速度，因为最初怀疑此次疫情为埃博拉病毒的卫生工作者，当时仅拥有针对该病毒另一亚型的检测试剂。

今年4月，中国浙江省杭州市浙江友莱生物科技有限公司的车间内，技术人员正在生产基因检测所需的组件。

Scientists in China are also researching an mRNA vaccine that would provide protection across hemorrhagic fever viruses, such as Ebola — work that is in early stages, according to a peer-reviewed article in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

中国的科学家还在研究一种能针对包括埃博拉在内的多种出血热病毒提供保护的mRNA疫苗，根据《美国国家科学院院刊》上一篇经过同行评审的文章，这项工作目前处于早期阶段。

Those researchers are not yet part of the international scientific effort to respond to the outbreak that is being coordinated by the Center for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a group that works to speed vaccines to market.

这些研究人员尚未加入由流行病防范创新联盟协调的应对此次疫情的国际科学工作，该组织致力于加速疫苗上市进程。

The smaller role of the U.S. takes pressure off China.

美国作用的减弱减轻了中国的压力

During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, China’s strong response may have been driven in part by a desire to match American efforts, experts said.

专家表示，在2014年埃博拉疫情期间，中国的强有力反应部分可能是出于与美国抗衡的愿望。

Now, the United States’ withdrawal from the W.H.O. and its smaller role in the outbreak could be having the reverse effect.

现在，美国退出世卫组织、在此次疫情中作用减弱，这可能会产生相反的影响。

Beijing “might think the U.S. is no longer a leading global health player so the incentive to compete with the United States for soft power might be reduced,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations.

美国外交关系委员会全球卫生高级研究员黄严忠表示，北京“可能会认为美国不再是全球卫生的主要领导者，因此与美国竞争软实力的动机可能会减弱”。

The outbreak this time is more complex, in part because its epicenter is in northeastern Congo, where armed groups are active.

此次疫情更为复杂，部分原因是疫情中心位于刚果东北部，那里武装组织十分活跃。

“I don’t think the Chinese want to barge in and own this problem,” Dr. Morrison said.

莫里森说：“我不认为中国人想贸然进入，并且把这个问题揽在自己身上。”

Any decision to ramp up Chinese involvement would likely happen at a senior level in Beijing, given the lack of independent aid groups in China and that humanitarian assistance often involves the military or the state-controlled Red Cross Society.

鉴于中国缺乏独立的援助组织，且人道主义援助通常涉及军队或国家控制的红十字会，任何扩大中国参与程度的决定都可能由北京高层做出。

“If someone in Beijing makes the decision and says, ‘We are going in,’ I would expect things to move quickly,” said Marina Rudyak, an expert on China and foreign aid at Heidelberg University. “But the bureaucratic system today is less agile than it was in 2014 — decision-making has been more centralized.”

海德堡大学研究中国和对外援助的专家卢玛丽(Marina Rudyak)说：“如果北京有人做出决定说，‘我们要介入了’，我预计事情会进展得很快。但今天的官僚系统不如2014年灵活——决策变得更集中了。”

2024年，刚果民主共和国东部卡米图加通往一座矿场的一条道路。该国大部分关键矿产开采业务均由中国企业拥有或运营。

For Beijing, economic interests are paramount.

对于北京而言，经济利益至关重要。

Some experts say China’s foreign aid efforts are driven by a desire to protect its economic investments, and so far those interests have not been hurt.

一些专家表示，中国的对外援助努力是出于保护其经济投资的愿望，而到目前为止，这些利益并未受到损害。

Chinese companies own or run most of the critical mineral mining operations in Congo, largely in the south of the country, far from the outbreak. Workers said business was as usual.

中国公司拥有或运营着刚果的大部分关键矿产开采业务，这些业务主要分布在远离疫情的该国南部。工人们表示业务一切照常。

A Chinese construction worker in the city of Kolwezi in the south, who gave only his surname, Liu, said he had heard about the outbreak only this week.

南部城市科卢韦齐一名只愿透露姓氏的中国建筑工人刘某表示，他直到本周才听说疫情暴发。

He cannot afford a flight home, so has no choice but to stay. “Of course I’m worried,” he said. “Who isn’t afraid of dying?”

他无力承担回国的机票费用，所以别无选择，只能留下。“我当然很担心，”他说。“谁不怕死呢？”

Jeremy Konyndyk, a former senior U.S. official who oversaw the Ebola response in West Africa, said the scale of China’s involvement in this outbreak might be determined by how much the mining industry is affected.

曾负责西非埃博拉疫情应对工作的前美国高级官员杰里米·科宁迪克表示，中国参与此次疫情的规模可能取决于采矿业受到的影响程度。

“When China gets involved in foreign aid type activities, it is not about benevolence and solving a problem, it is about protecting their economic interests,” said Mr. Konyndyk, who is now president of the aid agency Refugees International.

现任援助机构“国际难民组织”（Refugees International）主席的科宁迪克先生表示：“当中国参与这种对外援助活动时，这无关乎仁慈或解决问题，而是为了保护他们的经济利益。”

In that way, he said, the Chinese calculus is similar to that of the Trump administration’s “America First” global health policy.

他说，从这个角度来看，中国的考量与特朗普政府“美国优先”的全球卫生政策相似。