As the United States imposes a blockade of Iranian ports, pressure is mounting on Beijing to push Tehran to accept terms that will end the war and the global energy crisis. In reality, there is little that Beijing could or would do to pressure its partner in the Middle East.

随着美国对伊朗港口实施封锁，北京方面正面临越来越大的压力，要求它推动德黑兰接受结束战争与全球能源危机的条件。但实际上，中国无论从能力还是意愿上，都不会去施压它的这个中东伙伴。

This week, as an array of leaders including the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and the prime minister of Spain visited Beijing, the question of what China could do to help resolve the crisis was the inescapable backdrop to every meeting. In these talks, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, condemned the flouting of international law as a “return to the law of the jungle” — a not-so-veiled dig at President Trump — and offered “a Chinese solution” in the form of a four-point plan to resolve the crisis.

本周，随着包括阿布扎比王储和西班牙首相在内的一系列领导人访问北京，中国能为解决危机做些什么成为每一场会谈无法回避的背景。在这些会谈中，中国国家主席习近平谴责无视国际法的行为是“倒回丛林法则”——这是对特朗普总统毫不隐晦的讽刺——并提出以四点主张为核心的“中国方案”来解决危机。

But that plan offers little more than a call for all to respect the principle of sovereignty and international law. It reflects how China, even as it grows more concerned about the war’s impact on its economy, has avoided becoming too entangled in the crisis. That includes being noncommittal in its response to Tehran’s calls for China to guarantee its security, as well as not using its influence as Iran’s largest trading partner to push the country to accept U.S. demands.

但这一方案除了呼吁各方尊重主权原则和国际法之外，并未提供更多实质内容。这反映出，中国尽管越来越担心战争对其经济的影响，但仍避免过度卷入危机。这包括对德黑兰呼吁中国保证其安全的请求不置可否，以及不利用其作为伊朗最大贸易伙伴的影响力来推动它接受美国的要求。

Asking China to pressure Iran is to “misread China’s foreign policy and position,” said Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University. “Helping the United States or Israel is not China’s intention because China opposed this war from the very beginning.”

上海外国语大学中东研究所教授丁隆表示，要求中国向伊朗施压是“对中国的外交政策和立场的误读”。他说：“帮助美国或以色列不是中国的意图，因为中国从一开始就反对这场战争。”

中国国家主席习近平周二在北京会见了来自阿布扎比的代表团，其中包括王储。关于中国能在多大程度上帮助解决伊朗危机的问题成为此次会谈挥之不去的背景。

China, which has long claimed that it does not interfere in other countries’ affairs, wants to be viewed as a global leader on its own terms. Unlike the United States, which has long maintained its dominance through its defense alliances, China has only one treaty ally, North Korea.

中国长期以来一直声称不干涉他国内政，希望以自己的方式被视为全球领导者。与长期通过防务联盟来维持主导地位的美国不同，中国只有一个条约盟友，即朝鲜。

And China’s rulers have little desire to commit to another nation’s defense and risk being dragged into a costly war that ultimately undermines their own country’s strength.

而且，中国领导人几乎没有意愿为其他国家提供防务承诺，更不愿被拖入一场代价高昂、最终削弱自身实力的战争。

“Chinese leaders tend to view U.S. interventions in the Middle East as a key driver of American decline and they have no interest in following that model,” said Patricia Kim, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center.

布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心高级研究员帕特里夏·金表示：“中国领导人倾向于将美国对中东的干预视为美国衰落的关键驱动因素，他们没有兴趣效仿这种模式。”

Yes, the Iran war hurts China too.

是的，伊朗战争同样会伤害到中国。

China has a lot to lose if the conflict in Iran continues. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for China’s energy and goods — about a third of its total crude oil imports come from the Persian Gulf. At a time when China is especially reliant on exports to prop up its economy, higher energy costs will cut into demand for Chinese goods.

如果伊朗冲突持续下去，中国将损失惨重。霍尔木兹海峡是中国能源和商品运输的关键通道——中国约三分之一的原油进口来自波斯湾。在中国尤其依赖出口来支撑经济的时候，能源成本上升会抑制对中国商品的需求。

“They have strategic reserves, but it’s not going to last forever,” said Yun Sun, a scholar at the Stimson Center in Washington, referring to oil reserves that China began stockpiling before the war began. “They don’t like instability. They don’t like a war that’s basically hanging over their head,” she added.

华盛顿史汀生中心学者孙韵表示，中国确实拥有战略储备，但“这不可能一直撑下去”，她指的是中国在战争爆发前就开始囤积的石油储备。她补充说：“他们不喜欢不稳定的局势，也不喜欢这种基本上是悬在头上的战争。”

上海的一家石化厂。能源成本上升将会抑制对中国商品的需求。

In a sign of growing concern, Chinese officials engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity this week after talks between the United States and Iran failed to produce a peace agreement.

在美伊谈判未能达成和平协议后，中国官员本周展开了一系列密集的外交活动，显示出日益加深的担忧。

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, called on his counterpart in Pakistan, which hosted the talks, to help sustain the “hard-won momentum” of the temporary cease-fire struck last week. Speaking with Iran’s foreign minister on Wednesday, Mr. Wang said that China continued to support Iran, but he also urged that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, saying freedom of navigation should “also be guaranteed.”

中国外交部长王毅致电巴基斯坦外长——巴基斯坦是此次谈判的主办方——呼吁其帮助保持上周达成的临时停火所取得的“来之不易停火势头”。在周三与伊朗外长通话时，王毅表示中国将继续支持伊朗，但同时也敦促重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，称航行自由“也应得到保障”。

But Washington’s distraction is also an opportunity.

不过，美国的注意力被分散对中国来说也是一个机会。

In some ways, the war also benefits Beijing. The United States is bogged down in the Middle East rather than focused on the Indo-Pacific, or deterring China’s threats to take Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.

从某些方面来看，这场战争也让北京受益。美国被困在中东，而不是将注意力集中在印太地区，或遏制中国对台湾（北京宣称台湾为其领土）的威胁。

And China has been able to use America’s military actions as a way to cast itself by contrast as a peaceful nation that champions global stability.The war also means that more countries, frustrated with Mr. Trump, are turning to China as a more predictable partner.

而中国则能利用美国的军事行动反衬出自己是一个倡导全球稳定的和平国家。这场战争还意味着，更多对特朗普感到失望的国家正转向中国，视其为更具可预见性的合作伙伴

“I think its 50-50 good and bad,” said Xin Qiang, a U.S.-China expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. He said that while rising energy costs hurt China’s economy, dissatisfaction with Washington is pushing countries to strengthen ties with China, which helps expand Beijing’s global influence.

“我认为好坏参半，”上海复旦大学美中关系方面的专家信强说。他表示，虽然能源成本上涨损害了中国经济，但对华盛顿的不满正促使各国加强与中国的关系，这有助于扩大北京的全球影响力。

“It shows that China is — at least as we see it — a more responsible country than the United States,” he said. “We’re more trustworthy, more rational and more peaceful.”

“这表明中国——至少在我们看来——是一个比美国更负责任的国家，”他说。“我们更值得信赖、更理性、更爱好和平。”

China doesn’t want to be blamed if peace talks fail.

如果和谈失败，中国不想受到指责。

When Iranian officials credited China for helping push through the cease-fire agreement last week, Beijing did not confirm or deny a role. A foreign ministry spokeswoman said only that China was “working actively” to bring about an end to the crisis.

当伊朗官员上周将促成停火协议的部分功劳归于中国时，北京既未证实也未否认自己所扮演的角色。中国外交部一位发言人仅表示，中国“一直积极致力于”推动危机结束。

That sidestepping suggests that Beijing, wary of the possibility that the cease-fire might fail, played only an indirect role in the talks, according to some analysts, and at most encouraged the sides to come to the table. (Iran may be overstating China’s role in an effort push Beijing to be more vested in any agreement with the United States, according to Dr. Sun.)

一些分析人士认为，这种回避态度表明，北京方面担心停火可能失败，因此在谈判中只发挥了间接作用，最多只是鼓励各方坐到谈判桌前。（孙韵认为，伊朗可能夸大了中国的作用，目的是在与美国达成的任何协议中让北京拥有更大的利益牵扯。）

“I think it is highly unlikely China took an active role in that mediation attempt. The risks are high. It fears being blamed,” said Sarah Beran, a partner at Macro Advisory Partners who served as senior director for China and Taiwan affairs in President Biden’s National Security Council.

曾在拜登政府国家安全委员会担任中国与台湾事务高级主任、现为Macro Advisory Partners合伙人的贝莎兰(Sarah Beran)表示：“我认为中国在调解中发挥积极作用的可能性极低。风险太高了，它害怕承担责任。”

中国外部王毅与巴基斯坦外长达尔上个月在北京会面。本周，王毅敦促巴基斯坦帮助保持“来之不易停火势头”。

China argues that every country has the right to govern itself without outside meddling and positions itself as a power that does not bully others. (Yet, when it comes to what it considers China’s own interests — such as its claims over Taiwan and in the South China Sea — China has used trade bans, tariffs and sent its military and Coast Guard to apply pressure on other countries.)

中国主张，各国都有权在不受外部干涉的情况下进行治理，并将自己定位为一个不欺负他国的大国。（然而，在涉及自身核心利益时，例如对台湾以及南中国海的主权主张，中国就动用了贸易禁令和关税手段，并派遣军队和海警向其他国家施压。）

Also, China lacks the military might to enforce its will.

此外，中国也缺乏足够的军事实力来强推自己的意志。

Part of China’s reluctance to get more involved in the crisis in the Middle East is also a question of capability.

中国不愿更深入地介入中东危机，部分原因也在于能力问题。

China’s rapidly expanding military does not have an expansive network of overseas bases like the United States does, though its navy has stationed an antipiracy task force in the Gulf of Aden since 2008. So far, it has not been deployed to guard Chinese vessels, a step experts say would be unlikely unless Chinese ships came under direct attack.

尽管中国军力迅速扩张，但尚未像美国那样拥有遍布全球的海外军事基地网络。不过，自2008年以来，中国海军一直在亚丁湾部署反海盗护航编队。到目前为止，该护航编队尚未用于护卫中国船只——专家表示，除非中国船只遭到直接攻击，否则不太可能采取这一步。

“China can definitely play a role, but that role remains limited,” said Dr. Xin of Fudan University.

“中国当然可以发挥作用，但这个作用仍然是有限的，”复旦大学的信强博士说。

“If Iran needs security guarantees, it’s very difficult for China to provide them,” he said. “If the U.S. wants Iran to abandon its nuclear program, China has no way to force Iran to give it up.”

“如果伊朗需要安全保障，中国很难提供，”他表示。“如果美国希望伊朗放弃核计划，中国也无法强迫伊朗放弃。”

While Beijing is eager to push for peace, it is also constrained by competing priorities. It needs to manage the economic fallout of the energy crisis, reset its relationship with Washington ahead of a summit between Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump, and maintain its ties with both Iran and the Gulf states, which have come under attack from Tehran.

尽管北京有意推动和平进程，但也受到多重优先事项的制约。它既需要应对能源危机带来的经济冲击，又要在习近平与特朗普会晤前重新调整与美国的关系，同时还要维持与伊朗以及海湾国家的关系——而这些海湾国家正受到来自德黑兰的攻击。

As the prospect of a quick victory over Iran by the United States and Israel appears less likely, Beijing’s calculus has shifted.

随着美国和以色列迅速击败伊朗的可能性越来越低，北京的战略考量也发生了变化。

“Had the U.S. been victorious within a week or two, the Chinese would have gone with it,” said Dr. Sun.

“如果美国在一两周内获胜，中国人会顺势跟进，”孙韵说。

Now, China’s current strategy is to seek a cease-fire as quickly as possible, she said, and try to “maximize China’s role, although indirect, in the mediation so that China gains more credibility.”

她表示，目前中国的策略是尽快促成停火，同时“在调解过程中尽量扩大中国的作用，哪怕是间接的，从而提升中国的国际信誉”。