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中美关系再掀波澜,布林肯访华面临考验

王月眉

2024年4月25日

美国国务卿布林肯周三抵达上海,受到上海市外事办公室主任孔福安和两名美国外交官——驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯和驻上海总领事王汉(Scott Walker)——的欢迎。 Pool photo by Mark Schiefelbein

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken arrived in China on Wednesday to try to preserve the recent and delicate stabilization of ties between the United States and China, as tensions over trade, territorial disputes and national security threaten to derail relations again.

美国国务卿布林肯周三抵达中国,在有关贸易、领土争端和国家安全的紧张局势可能再次扰乱两国关系之际,试图维护美中关系最近取得的脆弱稳定。

Even before Mr. Blinken’s plane approached Shanghai, the challenges ahead were apparent. He landed just hours after the U.S. Senate passed a bill, which President Biden is expected to quickly sign into law, that provides $8 billion to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region, and could also lead to a nationwide ban on the Chinese-owned app TikTok.

甚至当布林肯乘坐的飞机还未在上海降落,他将面临的挑战就已经显现出来。数小时前,美国参议院通过了一项法案,预计拜登总统很快会将其签署为法律,该法案将为台湾和印度太平洋地区提供80亿美元的军事援助,并可能导致在全范围内禁止中国人拥有的手机应用程序TikTok

The political season in the United States also looms as a complication. With the presidential election nearing, Democrats and Republicans are vying to appear tougher on China. And if former President Donald Trump is re-elected, he could reverse Beijing’s and Washington’s efforts to steady the relationship.

美国的政治季节带来的复杂性也在缓缓逼近。随着总统大选的临近,民主党人和共和党人都在争先恐后地表现出更强硬的对华态度。如果前总统特朗普再次当选的话,他可能会彻底转变两国政府为稳定双边关系所做的努力。

During Mr. Blinken’s three-day trip, which will also include a visit to Beijing, he plans to press Chinese officials on a wide range of issues, including its support for Russia, cheap Chinese exports that U.S. officials say threaten American jobs, and Chinese ships’ aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea, a senior State Department official told reporters in a telephone briefing.

美国国务院一名高级官员在电话简报会上向记者表示,布林肯此次访华为期三天,行程也将包括访问北京,他打算在一系列问题上向中国官员施压,包括中国支持俄罗斯的问题、美国官员所谓威胁美国就业的中国廉价出口产品问题,以及中国船只在南中国海的挑衅行为。

Chinese officials are likely to bring up American support for Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims, and trade restrictions that Beijing calls discriminatory.

中国官员很可能会提出美国支持台湾的问题(中国声称对自治的台湾拥有主权),以及美国的贸易限制(中国政府称之为歧视性的)。

Mr. Blinken is expected to meet with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi. It is not clear whether he will meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, as he did during his last visit, in June.

布林肯预计将与中国外交部长王毅举行会晤。目前尚不清楚他是否会与中国领导人习近平见面,布林肯上次访华是去年6月,那次他见了习近平

That visit — the first by an American secretary of state to China since 2018 — came at perhaps the worst moment in U.S.-China relations in recent years. High-level military communications were cut off, and neighboring countries worried that the two powers might stumble into a war.

那次访问是美国国务卿2018年以来的首次访华,访问的时机也许是美中关系近年来最糟糕的时刻。当时,中美已切断了高层军事交流,让邻国担心两国可能在无意中爆发战争。

Since then, relations have thawed somewhat. China’s economy is slowing, and Beijing has adopted a softer diplomatic tone to attract more foreign investment. Washington, though continuing to warn that China poses a global security threat, has said it wants to keep communication open.

之后,双边关系有所缓和。中国的经济发展正在放缓,为了吸引外资,它采取了更温和的外交口吻。虽然美国政府继续警告称,中国对全球安全构成威胁,但也表示要保持交流渠道畅通。

In November, Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi met for four hours near San Francisco. Afterward, China agreed to resume cooperation with the United States on fighting the global production of fentanyl, and both countries affirmed the importance of restoring cultural exchanges. The two leaders also spoke by phone this month.

去年11月,拜登和习近平曾在旧金山附近举行了四个小时的会晤。那之后,中国同意恢复与美国在打击全球芬太尼生产方面的合作,两国还肯定了恢复文化交流的重要性。两国领导人本月还通了电话。

Last week, the countries’ top defense officials held a video conference, their first substantive engagement since late 2022.

上周,两国的防长举行了一次视频会议,这是自2022年底以来两国军方的首次实质性接触。

But new sources of tension are rising. Western officials have grown increasingly vocal about concerns that China is backing Russia in its war in Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, during her own visit to China earlier this month, warned of “significant consequences” if Beijing provides material support. China has maintained that it is not, while deepening ties with Moscow. Mr. Xi hosted Russia’s foreign minister this month, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is expected to visit China soon.

但导致紧张局势加剧的新问题也在出现。西方国家的官员们已在越来越多表示他们对中国在俄乌战争中支持俄罗斯的担忧。美国财政部长耶伦在本月早些时候访华期间警告,如果中国公司向俄罗斯提供实质性的支持,它们将面临“重大后果”。中国予以否认,同时也正在深化中俄关系。习近平本月会见了俄外长,预计总统普京不久将访问中国。

U.S. officials have also said China is dumping cheap electric vehicles and solar panels in overseas markets, hurting American companies. China has rejected the accusations as smacking of protectionism.

美国官员还表示,中国正在向海外市场倾销廉价电动汽车和太阳能电池板,损害了美国公司的利益。中国否认了这些指控,称其为一种贸易保护主义。

Chinese ships’ aggressive behavior in waters disputed with the Philippines and Japan has also raised concerns about a possible clash that could draw in the United States, a treaty ally of those countries.

中国船只在与菲律宾和日本有争议的水域的挑衅行为也引起人们对可能发生冲突的担忧,一旦发生冲突,美国可能会卷入,因为这两个国家都是美国的条约盟友。

On Taiwan, perhaps the most sensitive issue in the U.S.-China relationship, the island is set to inaugurate its new president, Lai Ching-te — whom Beijing reviles as an advocate of Taiwanese independence — next month.

台湾也许是美中关系中最敏感的问题,台湾的当选总统赖清德将于下个月就任,中国斥责他鼓吹台独。

Asked at a regular news briefing on Wednesday about Congress’s new aid for Taiwan, Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said that stronger military cooperation between the United States and Taiwan would “not bring about security for Taiwan” and would “only escalate tensions across the Taiwan Strait.”

中国外交部发言人汪文斌在周三的例行记者会上被问及国会新通过的援台法案时表示,美台加强军事合作“不会给台湾带来安全”,“只会推高台海紧张局势”。

China’s defense minister, Dong Jun, had told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during their call that China would “brook no compromise” on Taiwan, according to the Chinese readout.

中国官媒报道,中国国防部长董军在视频通话中告诉美国国防部长奥斯汀,台湾问题是中国核心利益,“绝不容受损。”

Mr. Wang declined to answer repeated questions about TikTok on Wednesday. He referred reporters to previous statements from China’s Ministry of Commerce, which has said it would “firmly oppose” a sale of the app.

汪文斌周三拒绝回答记者多次提出的有关TikTok的问题。他让记者去读中国商务部此前的声明,该部已表示“坚决反对”出售该应用程序。

Within the United States, anti-China rhetoric is likely to intensify as the Democrats and Republicans compete to outdo each other on one of the few areas of bipartisan agreement. Campaigning last week in Pennsylvania, a steelworking stronghold, Mr. Biden called for raising tariffs on steel imports from China.

在美国国内,随着两党竞相对华强硬,反华言论可能会加剧,对华态度是两党意见一致的少数领域之一。拜登上周在钢铁制造重地宾夕法尼亚州进行竞选活动时曾呼吁提高对进口的中国钢铁征收的关税

“We had high hopes after the San Francisco summit, but recent developments are putting a lot of stress on the relationship,” said Xie Tao, the dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University. “When you add all these negative developments together, you have a pretty depressing picture of the U.S.-China relationship right now.”

“我们曾对旧金山峰会后的事态发展寄予厚望,但最近的事态发展给两国关系带来了很大压力,”北京外国语大学国际关系学院院长谢韬说。“把所有这些负面事态发展加在一起,人们看到的是目前相当令人沮丧的中美关系。”

Both countries have reason to try to prevent escalating tensions. The United States has asked China to help restrain Iran, with which it has good relations, from pushing its hostilities with Israel into full-blown war. And China is eager to stave off further tariffs from the United States, as strong exports have helped it counterbalance its housing crisis and weak consumer spending.

两国都有理由试图防止紧张局势升级。美国已要求中国帮助制止伊朗(该国与中国关系良好)将其与以色列的敌对行动推向全面战争。中国则要竭力避免美国进一步提高关税,因为强劲的出口已帮助抵消了国内的房地产危机和消费支出疲软的问题。

But both countries may also have little room for diplomatic maneuvering, because of hardening public opinion on both sides.

但两国也许都没有多少外交上的回旋余地,因为双方的公众舆论都已趋于强硬。

“There are already so many irritants and issues of mistrust within the relationship,” said Allen Carlson, a professor of international relations at Cornell University.

“两国关系中已存在着很多刺激因素和不信任,”康奈尔大学国际关系教授艾伦·卡尔森说。

“If you have a pot which is already close to boiling, it only takes adding a degree or two to push things over the edge.”

“就像一锅快烧开的水,只需再提高一两度就会沸腾起来。”


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