A bill that would force a sale of TikTok by its Chinese owner, ByteDance — or ban it outright — was passed by the Senate on Tuesday and signed into law Wednesday by President Biden.

周二，参议院通过了一项法案，将迫使TikTok的中国所有者字节跳动将该应用出售，否则直接将其禁止。周三，拜登总统签署了该法案，使其成为法律。

Now the process is likely to get even more complicated.

现在，这个进程可能会变得更加复杂。

Congress passed the measure citing national security concerns because of TikTok’s Chinese ties. Both lawmakers and security experts have said there are risks that the Chinese government could lean on ByteDance for access to sensitive data belonging to its 170 million U.S. users or to spread propaganda.

由于TikTok与中国的关系，国会以国家安全担忧为由通过了这项措施。议员和安全专家都表示，中国政府可能会利用字节跳动获取属于其1.7亿美国用户的敏感数据，或者进行宣传。

The law would allow TikTok to continue to operate in the United States if ByteDance sold it within 270 days, or about nine months, a time frame that the president could extend to a year.

如果字节跳动在270天（约九个月）内出售TikTok，法律将允许TikTok继续在美国运营，总统可以将这个时限延长至一年。

The measure is likely to face legal challenges, as well as possible resistance from Beijing, which could block the sale or export of the technology. It’s also unclear who has the resources to buy TikTok, since it will carry a hefty price tag.

这项措施可能会面临法律挑战，也可能会遭到北京的抵制。北京可能会阻止其技术的销售或出口。目前还不清楚谁有财力收购TikTok，因为它的价格会很高。

The issue could take months or even years to settle, during which the app would probably continue to function for U.S. consumers.

这个问题可能需要几个月甚至几年的时间才能解决，在此期间，这款应用可能仍将继续为美国消费者提供服务。

“It’s going to be a royal mess,” said Anupam Chander, a visiting scholar at the Institute for Rebooting Social Media at Harvard and an expert on the global regulation of new technologies.

“这将是一场巨大的混乱，”哈佛大学重启社交媒体研究所访问学者、新技术全球监管专家阿努帕姆·钱德尔说。

TikTok pledged to challenge the law. “Rest assured, we aren’t going anywhere,” its chief executive, Shou Chew, said in a video posted to the platform. “We are confident, and we will keep fighting for your rights in the courts.”

TikTok承诺将挑战这项法律。“请放心，我们哪也不去，”该公司首席执行官周受资在该平台上发布视频说。“我们有信心，我们将继续在法庭上为你们的权利而战。”

Here’s what to expect next.

接下来会发生什么呢？

TikTok’s Day in Court

TikTok的出庭日

TikTok is likely to start by challenging the measure in the courts.

TikTok可能首先在法庭上挑战这项措施。

“I think that’s the one certainty: There will be litigation,” said Jeff Kosseff, an associate professor of cybersecurity law at the Naval Academy.

“我认为有一点是肯定的：会有诉讼，”美国海军学院网络安全法副教授杰夫·科塞夫说。

TikTok’s case will probably lean on the First Amendment, legal experts said. The company is expected to argue that a forced sale could violate its users’ free speech rights because a new owner could change the app’s content policies and reshape what users are able to freely share on the platform.

法律专家表示，TikTok的案件可能会依赖于第一修正案。预计该公司将辩称，强制出售可能侵犯其用户的言论自由权，因为新的所有者可能会改变该应用的内容规定，重塑用户可以在平台上自由分享的内容。

“Thankfully, we have a Constitution in this country, and people’s First Amendment rights are very important,” Michael Beckerman, TikTok’s vice president of public policy, said in an interview with a creator on the platform last week. “We’ll continue to fight for you and all the other users on TikTok.”

“值得庆幸的是，我们国家有宪法，人民的第一修正案权利非常重要，”TikTok负责公共政策的副总裁迈克尔·贝克曼上周在接受该平台一位创作者采访时说。“我们将继续为你和TikTok上的所有其他用户而战。”

Other groups, like the American Civil Liberties Union, which has been a vocal opponent of the bill, may also join the legal fight. A spokeswoman for the A.C.L.U. said on Tuesday that the group was still weighing its role in potential litigation challenging the law.

美国公民自由联盟等其他团体也可能加入这场法律斗争，该联盟一直是这项法案的大声反对者。美国公民自由联盟的一名发言人周二表示，该组织仍在权衡在挑战该法律的潜在诉讼中应该扮演什么样的角色。

The government will probably need to make a strong case that ByteDance’s ownership of TikTok makes it necessary to limit speech because of national security concerns, the legal experts said.

法律专家称，政府可能需要强有力地证明，出于国家安全考虑，字节跳动对TikTok的所有权使得限制言论成为必要。

TikTok already has a strong record in similar First Amendment battles. When he was president, Donald J. Trump tried to force a sale or ban of the app in 2020, but federal judges blocked the effort because it would have had the effect of shutting down a “platform for expressive activity.” Montana tried to ban TikTok in the state last year because of the app’s Chinese ownership, but a different federal judge ruled against the state law for similar reasons.

TikTok在类似的第一修正案诉讼中已经有了良好的记录。特朗普担任总统期间曾经试图在2020年强制出售或禁止这款应用，但联邦法官阻止了这一努力，因为这将导致关闭一个“表达活动的平台”。去年，蒙大拿州试图在该州禁止TikTok，原因是该应用由中国人拥有，但另一名联邦法官出于类似的原因裁定该州法律无效。

Only one narrower TikTok restriction has survived a court challenge. The governor of Texas announced a ban of the app on state government devices and networks in 2022 because of its Chinese ownership and related data privacy concerns. Professors at public universities challenged the ban in court last year, saying it blocked them from doing research on the app. A federal judge upheld the state ban in December, finding it was a “reasonable restriction” in light of Texas’ concerns and the narrow scope affecting only state employees.

只有一项范围较窄的TikTok限制经受住了法庭的挑战。由于该应用的中国所有权和相关的数据隐私问题，得克萨斯州州长于2022年宣布，禁止在州政府设备和网络上使用该应用。去年，公立大学的教授们在法庭上对这一禁令提出质疑，称这阻碍了他们对这款应用进行研究。去年12月，一名联邦法官维持了该州的禁令，认为考虑到得克萨斯州的担忧，以及仅影响州政府雇员的狭窄范围，这是一个“合理的限制”。

Small Buyer Pool

可能的买家极少

Analysts estimate that the price for the U.S. portion of TikTok could be tens of billions of dollars.

分析人士估计，TikTok美国部分的价格可能高达数百亿美元。

ByteDance itself is one of the world’s most valuable start-ups, with an estimated worth of $225 billion, according to CB Insights, a firm that tracks venture capital and start-ups.

字节跳动本身是世界上最有价值的初创企业之一，据追踪风险资本和初创企业的公司CB Insights估计，其价值为2250亿美元。

The steep price tag would limit the list of who could afford TikTok. Tech giants like Meta or Google would probably be blocked from an acquisition because of antitrust concerns.

高昂的价格会导致负担得起的买家很少。由于反垄断方面的担忧，Meta或谷歌等科技巨头可能会被阻止收购。

Private equity firms or other investors could form a group to raise enough money to buy TikTok. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in March that he wanted to build such a group. And anyone who can pony up the money still has to pass muster with the U.S. government, which needs to sign off on any purchase.

私募股权公司或其他投资者可以组成一个集团，筹集足够的资金来收购TikTok。前财政部长史蒂文·努钦今年3月表示，他希望建立这样一个组织。而且，任何能拿出这笔钱的人都必须通过美国政府的审查，任何购买都需要得到美国政府的批准。

Few others have expressed public interest in buying the app.

几乎没有其他人表示有兴趣购买这款应用。

The last time the government tried to force ByteDance to sell TikTok in 2020, the company held talks with Microsoft and the software company Oracle. (Oracle and Walmart ultimately appeared to reach an agreement with ByteDance, but the deal never materialized.)

2020年，政府上一次试图迫使字节跳动出售TikTok时，该公司与微软和软件公司甲骨文进行了谈判（甲骨文和沃尔玛最终似乎与字节跳动达成了协议，但这笔交易从未实现）。

A Complicated Divestment

复杂的剥离过程

Even if TikTok approaches a sale, the process of separating TikTok from ByteDance is likely to be messy.

即使TikTok接近出售，将TikTok与字节跳动分离的过程也可能会很混乱。

The legislation prohibits any connection between ByteDance and TikTok after a sale. Yet TikTok employees use ByteDance software in their communications, and the company’s employees are global, with executives in Singapore, Dublin, Los Angeles and Mountain View, Calif.

这项立法禁止字节跳动在出售后与TikTok有任何联系。然而，TikTok的员工在交流中使用字节跳动的软件，而且该公司的员工遍布全球，高管分布在新加坡、都柏林、洛杉矶和加州山景城。

It’s unclear if ByteDance would consider selling TikTok’s entire global footprint or just its U.S. operations, where the company has nearly 7,000 employees.

目前尚不清楚字节跳动是否会考虑出售TikTok的整个全球业务，还是只出售其美国业务，该公司在美国拥有近7000名员工。

Breaking off just the U.S. portion of TikTok could prove particularly challenging. The app's recommendation algorithm, which figures out what users like and serves up content, is key to the success of the app. But Chinese engineers work on that algorithm, which ByteDance owns.

事实可能会证明，只分拆TikTok的美国部分尤其具有挑战性。这款应用的推荐算法能找出用户喜欢什么，并提供相关内容，是该应用成功的关键。但这一算法由中国工程师开发，并由字节跳动拥有。

During Mr. Trump’s attempt to force a sale in 2020, the Chinese government issued export restrictions that appeared to require its regulators to grant permission before ByteDance algorithms could be sold or licensed to outsiders.

2020年，特朗普试图强制出售该应用期间，中国政府发布了出口限制，似乎要求字节跳动在向外界出售或许可使用其算法之前获得监管机构的许可。

The uncertainty around the export of the algorithm and other ByteDance technology could also deter interested buyers.

围绕该算法和字节跳动其他技术出口的不确定性也可能让有兴趣的买家望而却步。

China’s Unpredictable Role

中国在其中不可预测的角色

The Chinese government could also try to block a TikTok sale.

中国政府也可能试图阻止TikTok的出售。

Chinese officials criticized a similar bill after the House passed it in March, although they have not yet said whether they would block a divestment. About a year ago, China’s commerce ministry said it would “firmly oppose” a sale of the app by ByteDance.

今年3月，众议院通过了一项类似的法案，中国官员对此提出了批评，尽管他们尚未表示是否会阻止TikTok的拆分。大约一年前，中国商务部表示，将“坚决反对”字节跳动出售这款应用。

Chinese export regulations appear to cover TikTok’s content recommendation algorithm, giving Beijing a say in whether ByteDance could sell or license the app’s most valuable feature.

中国的出口法规似乎涵盖了TikTok的内容推荐算法，这让北京拥有了发言权，可以影响字节跳动是否出售或授权TikTok最有价值的功能。

It “is not a foregone conclusion by any means” that China will allow a sale, said Lindsay Gorman, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund who specializes in emerging tech and China.

德国马歇尔基金专门研究新兴科技和中国的高级研究员林德赛·戈尔曼说，中国会允许出售TikTok“绝非一件板上钉钉的事”。

China may retaliate against American companies. On Friday, China’s Cyberspace Administration asked Apple to remove Meta’s WhatsApp and Threads from its App Store, according to the iPhone manufacturer. The Chinese government cited national security reasons in making the demand.

中国可能会对美国公司进行报复。据苹果称，周五，中国国家互联网信息办公室要求苹果从其应用商店中删除Meta的WhatsApp和Threads应用。中国政府以国家安全为由提出了这一要求。