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布林肯访华之际,中美关系面临哪些挑战

ANA SWANSON, DAVID PIERSON, OLIVIA WANG

2024年4月26日

美国国务卿布林肯周四与上海市委书记陈吉宁见面。 Pool photo by Mark Schiefelbein

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is meeting officials in China this week as disputes over wars, trade, technology and security are testing the two countries’ efforts to stabilize the relationship.

美国国务卿布林肯本周正在中国与官员会晤,双方在战争、贸易、技术和国家安全方面的争端正在考验两国稳定关系的努力。

The United States is heading into an election year in which President Biden will face intense pressure to confront China’s authoritarian government and offer new protections for American businesses and workers from low-priced Chinese imports.

美国已进入大选年,拜登总统将面临需要对抗中国威权主义政府的巨大压力,为美国企业和工人不受廉价中国进口商品的影响提供新的保护。

China is courting foreign investment to help its sluggish economy. At the same time, its leader, Xi Jinping, has been bolstering national security and expanding China’s military footprint around Taiwan and the South China Sea in ways that have alarmed its neighbors.

中国正在讨好外国投资者以帮助提振本国低迷的经济。与此同时,中国领导人习近平一直在强调国家安全,扩大中国在台湾海峡和南中国海的军事存在,这种做法已使邻国害怕。

Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi have held talks to prevent their countries’ disputes from spiraling into conflict, after relations sank to their lowest point in decades last year. But an array of challenges could make steadying the relationship difficult.

美中关系去年跌至几十年来的最低点后,拜登和习近平为防止两国争端升级为冲突举行了会晤。但一系列挑战可能会让稳定两国关系的努力变得困难。

Showdowns Over China’s Territory Claims

向中国的领土主张摊牌

The United States has been pushing back against China’s increasingly assertive claims over swaths of the South China Sea and the self-governed island of Taiwan by building security alliances in Asia.

美国一直在亚洲建立安全联盟,以反击中国对南中国海大片水域和自治的台湾日益强硬的领土主张。

That effort has prompted more concerns in Beijing that the United States is leading a campaign to encircle China and contain its rise.

这一努力已引发中国政府更多的担忧,认为美国正在牵头发起一场围堵中国、遏制其崛起的运动。

In meetings earlier this month, Mr. Biden met with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines. They discussed territorial conflicts in the South China Sea, including China’s “repeated harassment of lawful Philippine operations,” the U.S. government said.

拜登曾在本月早些时候与日本和菲律宾的领导人举行了会晤。据美国政府表示,他们讨论了南中国海的领土纠纷,包括中国“屡次骚扰菲律合法作业”的问题。

00china blinken explainer 01 kzlf master1050一艘中国船只出现在为前往斯普拉特利群岛前哨基地执行补给任务提供保护的菲律宾海岸警卫队船只附近,摄于去年11月。该前哨基地位于南中国海的阿云金浅滩附近。

Encounters between Chinese and American military ships and planes in the Taiwan Strait and the South China and East China Seas have continued, raising concerns that an accident could trigger a confrontation between the two powers. That is why U.S. officials have insisted on maintaining close military communication. High-level contacts between the two armies were restored earlier this year after China froze communication in response to former House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022.

中国与美国的军舰和飞机在台湾海峡、南海和东海的相遇继续发生,引起人们对意外事件可能引发这两个大国之间发生冲突的担忧。这是为什么美国官员坚持要保持密切军事沟通的原因。两国已在今年早些时候恢复了军方的高层接触,之前,中国曾因美国众议院前议长佩洛西2022年8月访台停止了军方沟通。

China says the United States and its allies are stoking confrontation and should not interfere in the region’s affairs. It has already bristled about the United States and the Philippines launching annual joint military exercises this week. The U.S. Army also deployed for the first time, as part of an exercise, a midrange missile system in the Philippines that could reach targets in China.

中国称美国及其盟国正在煽动对抗,美国不应干涉亚洲地区的事务。中国已对美国和菲律宾本周举行的年度联合军事演习表示不满。作为演习的一部分,美国陆军还首次在菲律宾部署了中程导弹系统,这种导弹能打击中国的目标。

To counter Washington’s efforts, China has been trying to shore up ties with nonaligned countries in the region. The country’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, visited Indonesia, Cambodia and Papua New Guinea last week, around the same time that Mr. Blinken met with foreign ministers from the Group of 7 nations, a grouping Beijing considers a rival for global influence.

为了对抗华盛顿的努力,中国一直在努力加强与该地区不结盟国家的关系。中国最高外交官王毅上周访问了印度尼西亚、柬埔寨和巴布亚新几内亚,大约在同一时间,布林肯与七国集团的外长举行了会晤,北京认为七国集团是与中国竞争全球影响力的对手。

Curbing the Flow of Fentanyl

遏制芬太尼流入市场

U.S. officials say China has played a concerning role in providing the chemicals and precursors that are used to make the powerful drug of fentanyl.

美国官员称,中国在提供用于制造强效非法药物芬太尼的化学品和前体上起着令人担忧的作用。

In a meeting in San Francisco in November, President Biden and Mr. Xi resolved to cooperate on tracking and cutting down on those flows. U.S. officials say China has started making some progress on that account, but they’re likely to urge further action.

去年11月在旧金山会晤时,拜登和习近平决定在追踪和减少这些物品流入市场方面进行合作。美国官员表示,中方在这方面已经取得了一些进展,但他们可能会敦促进一步行动。

00china blinken explainer 02 kzlf master1050美国总统去年11月在加利福尼亚州伍德赛德的一处庄园迎接中国领导人习近平。

In a report released last week, a House Congressional committee focused on China alleged that China had actively promoted the supply of fentanyl precursors to the United States, including by subsidizing exporters. A State Department official said that Chinese authorities had started taking action against Chinese synthetic drug and chemical precursor suppliers, but that the U.S. wanted to see progress.

美国众议院一个关注中国问题的委员会在上周发布的一份报告中称,中国曾积极推动向美国供应芬太尼前体,包括补贴出口商。美国国务院的一名官员表示,中国政府已开始对中国合成药物和化学前体供应商采取行动,但美国希望看到进展。

China has long denied playing a major role in the fentanyl crisis in the United States and has deflected blame by saying it was a victim of Western powers during the Opium War.

长期以来,中国一直否认在美国芬太尼危机中起了主要作用,并说自己是西方列强鸦片战争的受害者,以此来转移责任。

Trade and Technology Restrictions

贸易和技术出口限制

The United States and China still have one of the world’s most extensive trading relationships, but it has grown even more contentious in recent months.

虽然美中依旧拥有世界上最广泛的贸易关系之一,但近几个月来,两国之间的争议越来越多。

U.S. officials have urged China to scale back its exports of inexpensive electric vehicles and other green energy goods, saying they are a threat to American jobs. They are weighing whether to raise tariffs on Chinese-made cars and solar panels, in order to block more Chinese imports from the United States.

美国官员已要求中国减少廉价电动汽车和其他绿色能源产品的出口,称其对美国就业构成威胁。为阻止更多中国商品进入美国,官员们正在考虑是否提高对中国制造的汽车和太阳能电池板的关税。

Last week, the Biden administration announced it would triple some tariffs on steel and aluminum products from China and begin an investigation into unfair practices by the Chinese shipbuilding, maritime and logistics sectors.

上周,拜登政府宣布将把中国钢铁和铝产品的部分关税提高到目前的三倍,并开始对中国的造船、海事和物流行业的不公平行为进行调查。

The Biden administration also continues to add more restrictions on selling advanced chips and the machinery used to make them to China, out of concern that AI could aid the Chinese military.

拜登政府还继续对向中国出口先进芯片和制造芯片的机器采取更多的限制措施,这是出于对人工智能可能帮助中国军队的担忧。

And on Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a bill that could force TikTok’s Chinese owner to either sell the app or face being banned in the United States. The ban is likely to be challenged in court.

周二,美国参议院通过了一项法案,可能迫使TikTok的中国所有者出售该应用程序,否则面临在美国被禁的前景。这项禁令很可能会在法庭上受到挑战。

00china blinken explainer 03 kzlf master1050TikTok的忠实用户今年3月在华盛顿。

Beijing has opposed the restrictions, which Mr. Xi has said are an attempt to deny China’s “legitimate right to development.” In response, he has called for China to promote “new productive forces” — a government mantra aimed at bolstering the country’s economy through technology and innovation in the hopes of becoming more self-reliant.

中国政府反对这些限制。习近平表示,这些限制是企图剥夺中国的“合法发展权”。作为回应,他要求中国发展“新质生产力”,这是通过技术创新来提振国内经济,让中国变得更加自力更生的政府口号。

Cybersecurity and Election Interference

网络安全和干预选举

U.S. officials have expressed concerns that China may seek to influence the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, including by orchestrating social media campaigns to influence American public opinion.

美国官员已表示担忧,中国可能会试图影响即将到来的美国总统大选的结果,包括通过策划社交媒体活动来影响美国的公众舆论。

The National Security Agency said last week that there were also more signs that China was trying to gain access to critical American infrastructure in order to threaten those systems in the event of a conflict. Last year, Microsoft said it discovered malicious code spread by Chinese government hackers embedded in telecommunications systems in Guam and elsewhere in the United States.

美国国家安全局上周称,有更多迹象表明,中国正试图入侵美国的关键基础设施,以便在发生冲突时让这些系统面临威胁。去年,微软曾表示,在关岛和美国其他地方的电信系统中发现了为中国政府工作的黑客嵌入的恶意代码

While Beijing has denied engaging in cyberattacks and election interference, recently leaked documents show China has developed a sophisticated network of state-sponsored hackers for hire that have targeted databases around the world.

尽管中国政府否认参与网络攻击和干预选举,但最近泄露的文件显示,中国创建了一个黑客组成的复杂网络,它由政府支持并出售服务,把世界各地的数据库作为攻击目标。

Russia’s War on Ukraine

俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争

American officials have made clear that they see China’s sale to Russia of chips, machine tools, drones and other materials that are used in the war in Ukraine as one of the biggest obstacles in the relationship between Beijing and Washington.

美国官员明确表示,他们认为美中关系的最大障碍之一是中国向俄罗斯出售用于乌克兰战争的芯片、机床、无人机和其他材料。

And they believe that getting China to withdraw that support could determine the outcome of the war.

他们认为,让中国停止提供这种支持会决定战争的结果。

China has tried to walk a careful line of not providing Russia with “lethal support,” like weapons, while still supporting Moscow. In early April, Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with Russia’s foreign minister and reaffirmed China’s partnership with Russia.

中国已试图谨慎把握分寸,不让武器等“可致死”的物品出现在提供给俄罗斯的支持中,同时坚定不移地支持莫斯科。4月初,中国国家主席习近平会见俄罗斯外长,重申了中俄伙伴关系。

00china blinken explainer 04 kzlf master1050俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫今年4月在北京与习近平举行了会晤。

Even as tensions between China and the United States have eased, Mr. Xi and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia have remain closely aligned. The two leaders have sought to weaken Washington’s global dominance, blaming “U.S. hegemony” for constraining their national ambitions.

在中美之间的紧张局势有所缓和的同时,习近平一直与俄罗斯总统普京保持着密切合作。中俄领导人都寻求削弱美国在全球的主导地位,指责“美国霸权”限制了他们的国家雄心。

Exerting Influence on Iran

对伊朗施加影响力

U.S. officials, including Mr. Blinken, hoping to avoid a wider war in the Middle East, have asked China to use its sway over Iran to persuade it not to escalate its confrontation with Israel.

美国官员们(包括布林肯)希望避免中东发生更广泛的战争,要求中国利用自己对伊朗的影响力,不让其与以色列的对抗升级。

As like-minded critics of the West, China and Iran have had close diplomatic ties for more than 50 years. That relationship has grown economically as China has pledged to invest billions in Iran in exchange for oil and fuel.

作为志趣相投的西方批评者,中国和伊朗有着50多年密切的外交关系。这种关系已发展到经济方面,中国已承诺在伊朗投资数十亿美元,以换取石油和燃料。

00china blinken explainer 05 kzlf master1050德黑兰一块绘有导弹图案的大型广告牌,摄于上周五。

Beijing had described Iran’s missile and drone attacks directed at Israel earlier this month as an “act of self-defense,” after what was widely believed to be an Israeli strike killed seven Iranian officials.

中国政府曾在本月早些时候把伊朗针对以色列的导弹和无人机袭击描述为“自卫行为”,之前人们曾普遍认为以色列的袭击导致了七名伊朗官员死亡。

Since Israel’s war in Gaza began, China has courted solidarity with the Muslim world by blaming the United States for decades of instability in the Middle East. Beijing has also not condemned Hamas for its terror attacks on Israel on Oct. 7.

自从以色列的加沙战争爆发以来,中国一直在取悦穆斯林世界,指责美国造成了中东几十年的不稳定。中国政府也一直没有谴责哈马斯去年10月7日对以色列发动的恐怖袭击。

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