An escalating civil war threatens to break apart a country of roughly 55 million people that sits between China and India. That has international consequences, but the conflict hasn’t commanded wide attention.

位于中国和印度之间的缅甸约有5500万人口，不断升级的内战有可能使这个国家四分五裂。这会产生国际影响，但冲突并没有引起广泛关注。

Over the past six months, resistance fighters in Myanmar’s hinterlands have been defeating the ruling military junta in battle after battle, stunning analysts. That raises the possibility that the junta could be at risk of collapsing.

过去六个月里，缅甸内陆地区的抵抗武装在与执政军政府的战斗中取得节节胜利，让分析人士感到震惊。军政府崩溃的可能性在增加。

The war is already a human rights catastrophe. Myanmar’s implosion since a 2021 military coup has wrecked its economy, throwing millions of people into extreme poverty. Its reputation as a hub for drugs, online scam centers and money laundering is growing. And its destabilization has created strategic headaches for China, India, the United States and other countries.

这场战争已经成为一场人权灾难。缅甸自2021年军事政变以来的内乱破坏了该国经济，成百上千万人陷入极端贫困。该国作为毒品、在线诈骗和洗钱中心的名声越来越大。它的不稳定给中国、印度、美国和其他国家带来了战略难题。

Here’s a primer.

下面是一些基本情况。

A coup opened the path to disaster.

一场政变开启了灾难之路。

Myanmar is not a democracy. The junta allowed elections more than a decade ago, enabling Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of an assassinated independence hero, to sit in Parliament. She later led a civilian government. But the junta controlled key levers of power through a military-drafted Constitution.

缅甸不是一个民主国家。十多年前，军政府允许举行选举，使得遇刺的独立英雄的女儿昂山素季得以进入议会。她后来领导了一个文职政府。但军政府通过军方起草的宪法控制了关键的权柄。

In 2021, the generals arrested Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi — who by then had lost her halo as a human rights icon — and staged a coup. That set off demonstrations, a brutal crackdown on mostly peaceful protesters, and waves of resistance from armed fighters.

2021年，将军们逮捕了昂山素季——当时她已经失去了人权偶像的光环——并发动了一场政变。这引发了示威活动，大多数和平抗议者遭到残酷镇压，武装分子发起一波又一波的抵抗。

2021年，在仰光，抗议者使用自制武器抵抗政府军。

The civil war is not new. Myanmar’s Army has been on a war footing since the former British colony gained independence in 1948. The recent fighting is unusual because many civilians from the country’s Bamar ethnic majority have taken up arms alongside ethnic groups that have been battling the army for decades.

这不是第一次爆发内战。自从这个前英国殖民地于1948年获得独立以来，缅军一直处于战争状态。最近的战斗之所以不同寻常，是因为缅甸的多数民族缅族中的许多平民拿起武器，与几十年来一直对抗军队的少数民族并肩作战。

Fighting has killed thousands of civilians.

战斗已造成数以千计的平民死亡。

In the years before the coup, Myanmar was emerging from decades of isolation under oppressive military rule. Companies like Ford, Coca-Cola and Mastercard made big investments. In Yangon, the largest city, tourists wandered among gilded pagodas and grand colonial-era buildings.

在政变发生前的几年里，缅甸正在摆脱几十年来在军人高压统治下的孤立状态。福特、可口可乐和万事达等公司进行了大笔投资。在缅甸最大的城市仰光，游客们徜徉在镀金的宝塔和宏伟的殖民时代建筑之间。

Now, bombings have put Yangon on edge, Western nations have imposed financial sanctions on members of the military regime, and thousands of middle-class people have fled to jungles to fight alongside ethnic insurgencies.

现在，爆炸事件让仰光人心惶惶，西方国家对军政府成员实施了金融制裁，数以千计的中产阶级逃进丛林，与少数民族叛乱者并肩作战。

Civilians are bearing the costs. The fighting has killed thousands and displaced nearly three million others. The country is now littered with land mines, and extreme inflation has contributed to a drastic shrinking of the middle class, according to the United Nations.

平民正在承担代价。这场战斗造成数以千计的人死亡，近300万人流离失所。据联合国称，这个国家现在到处都是地雷，极端的通货膨胀导致中产阶级急剧萎缩。

2月，缅甸军方与克钦族战士在缅甸北部掸邦交战，一家人在废墟中做饭。掸邦的一个少数民族联盟占领了几个城镇。

The health sector is in crisis, partly because the regime has targeted doctors. Among the many problems, childhood vaccinations have essentially stopped, and malaria has increased substantially. Experts worry about the spread of H.I.V. and tuberculosis.

卫生部门正处于危机之中，部分原因是政府在将医生作为打击目标。该国卫生领域问题众多，特别是儿童疫苗接种基本上已经停止，疟疾也大幅增加。专家们担心艾滋病毒和结核病的传播。

The rebels gain territory.

叛军在攻城掠地。

Rebels have seized large chunks of territory since October, the month an alliance of ethnic groups near the China border, in Shan State, captured several towns. Some have attacked the capital, Naypyidaw, with drones and made swift advances in several border regions. In recent weeks, rebels from the Karen ethnic group captured a trading town that lies east of Yangon along the Thai border — a once-unthinkable target. Neighboring Karenni State could be the first to entirely free itself of junta control.

去年10月，掸邦靠近中国边境的一个少数民族联盟占领了几个城镇，此后叛军占领了大片领土。一些叛军用无人机袭击了首都内比都，并在几个边境地区迅速推进。最近几周，克伦族叛军占领了仰光以东位于泰国边境的一个贸易城镇，这曾经是一个难以想象的目标。邻近的克伦尼邦可能成为第一个完全摆脱军政府控制的地区。

4月，一名克伦族战士在泰国边境妙瓦底郊区的缅甸军事基地。该镇由克伦民族联盟领导的叛军联盟控制。

There have also been advances in Kachin State, in the northeast, where the army controls lucrative jade mines, and in the western border state of Rakhine, where Myanmar soldiers and their militia allies once slaughtered members of the Rohingya Muslim minority, causing hundreds of thousands to flee to neighboring Bangladesh.

叛军在缅甸东北部的克钦邦和西部边境的若开邦也取得了进展，在克钦邦，政府军控制着利润丰厚的玉石矿。在若开邦，缅甸士兵及其民兵盟友曾屠杀罗辛亚穆斯林少数民族，导致数十万人逃往邻国孟加拉国。

Some analysts say the Arakan Army, a powerful ethnic militia in Rakhine, could soon take Sittwe, the heavily guarded state capital.

一些分析人士表示，若开邦强大的少数民族民兵阿拉干军可能很快就会占领重兵把守的邦首府实兑。

The conflict reverberates internationally.

冲突在国际上引起反响。

The war has regional and international consequences. Russia and other countries have sold the Myanmar army at least a billion dollars’ worth of weapons since the 2021 coup, according to the United Nations. China sees threats to the infrastructure projects it has funded across the country. And India, which has long feared chaos in its borderlands, is deporting Myanmar refugees.

这场战争产生了地区和国际后果。据联合国称，自2021年政变以来，俄罗斯和其他国家向缅甸军队出售了至少价值10亿美元的武器。中国看到它在缅甸全国各地投资的基础设施项目面临威胁。长期以来一直担心边境地区出现混乱的印度正在驱逐缅甸难民。

Thailand, Myanmar’s eastern neighbor, is similarly concerned about the estimated 40,000 or more refugees that the United Nations predicts will cross the border this year. Bangladesh sees obstacles to its efforts to repatriate the Rohingya. And the United States has started to provide nonlethal aid to armed resistance groups.

缅甸的东部邻国泰国也对今年联合国预计的四万或更多越境难民感到担忧。孟加拉国认为遣返罗辛亚人的努力存在障碍。美国已经开始向武装抵抗组织提供非致命性援助。

4月在泰国湄索区，一名越境进入泰国的缅甸女子。

So why doesn’t the war get more attention? One reason could be that Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has gone from a Nobel Peace laureate, kept under house arrest by generals, to an apologist for their murderous campaign against the Rohingya.

那么，为什么这场战争没有得到更多的关注？一个原因可能是，昂山素季已经从一位被将军们软禁的诺贝尔和平奖得主变成了将军们针对罗辛亚人杀戮行动的辩护者。

Richard Horsey, an expert on Myanmar and an adviser to the International Crisis Group, said that her fall from grace killed the “democracy-versus-the-generals narrative” that would have helped to generate interest in the war.

缅甸问题专家、国际危机组织顾问理查德·霍尔西表示，昂山素季的失势扼杀了“民主对抗将军的叙事”，而这种叙事本可以帮助人们对这场战争产生兴趣。

“The fairy tale narrative is gone,” he said. “And, you know, Sudan, right? Haiti? They don’t get as much attention either.”

“童话故事已经一去不复返了，”他说。“还有，你知道，苏丹，对吧？海地？它们也没有得到太多的关注。”