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德国为何无法与中国“分手”

MELISSA EDDY

2024年4月17日

周一,德国总理肖尔茨(右)参观了德国科思创公司在上海的一个创新中心。 Fang Zhe/Xinhua, via Associated Press

When Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, took office in 2021, he pledged that his government would shift his country’s relationship with China away from one of economic dependence. Three years later, talk of scaling back reliance on China has been replaced with calls for equal access to China’s market for foreign firms.

德国总理肖尔茨在2021年上任时承诺,他的政府将改变德国与中国的关系,摆脱经济依赖。三年后,有关减少对中国依赖的言论被要求外国公司平等进入中国市场的呼声所取代。

That strategy puts the Germans at odds with many of their closest allies, including the United States and other European countries, which would like to see China scale back its recent surge of exports in the green energy sector, including electric vehicles. The U.S. Treasury secretary, Janet L. Yellen, has talked about imposing trade restrictions on China.

这一战略使德国与其许多最亲密的盟友产生了分歧,包括美国和其他欧洲国家,这些国家希望看到中国缩减最近在绿色能源领域(包括电动汽车)的出口激增。美国财政部长耶伦曾谈到对中国实施贸易限制。

The chief executives of several leading multinational companies based in Germany joined Mr. Scholz on his three-day tour of China, which included a meeting with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, in Beijing on Tuesday. All of the company leaders oversee large operations in China that they are eager not only to maintain, but in many cases to expand.

几家总部位于德国的领先跨国公司的首席执行官随肖尔茨一道进行了为期三天的中国之行,其中包括周二在北京与中国最高领导人习近平的会晤。这些公司的领导人都管理着在中国的大量业务,他们不仅渴望维持这些业务,而且在很多情况下还希望扩大。

That leaves Mr. Scholz facing the delicate act of balancing the export-oriented needs of his domestic economy with pressure from allies to leverage his country’s position to make demands on the Chinese.

这让肖尔茨面临着一个微妙的平衡问题,既要满足本国经济的出口导向型需求,又要满足来自盟友的压力,以便利用本国的地位向中国提出要求。

How deep is the relationship between Germany and China?

中德关系有多么深厚?

German companies invested 10.4 billion euros, or $11 billion, in China last year and, unlike their counterparts in Japan and the United States, they have showed little sign of waning.

去年,德国企业在中国投资了104亿欧元(约合人民币800亿元)。与日本和美国企业不同,德国企业在华投资几乎没有减弱的迹象。

Some analysts see this as proof of German strength in its position to push its agenda with Chinese leaders.

一些分析人士认为,这证明了德国向中国领导人推动其议程的底气。

“Germany plays an exceptionally special role for China in the development of its economy and also in foreign trade relations,” said Max J. Zenglein, chief economist at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin. Electronics and electronic technology, along with machines and chemicals, remain important exports from Germany to China.

“在中国的经济发展和对外贸易关系中,德国扮演着非常特殊的角色,”柏林墨卡托中国研究中心首席经济学家马克斯·曾莱因说。电子产品和电子技术,以及机械和化学品仍然是德国对华出口的重要产品。

“As countries such as the U.S.A. and Japan are positioning themselves much more sharply in relation to China, Germany has an important function when it comes to access to technology and capital,” he said. “Germany is definitely in a position of strength here.”

“随着美国和日本等国家在与中国的往来中采取更尖锐的立场,德国对于中国获得技术和资本方面显得尤为重要,”他说。“德国在这方面绝对处于优势地位。”

16germany china explainer 02 bwlp master1050肖尔茨周日参观博世在重庆的氢动力工厂。

How are German companies faring in China?

德国企业在中国的表现如何

About 5,000 German companies are active in China. But in a recent survey of 150 members of the German Chamber of Commerce in Greater China, two-thirds said they felt they faced unfair competition in the country.

目前约有5000家德国企业在中国开展业务。但最近对150家大中华区德国商会会员进行的一项调查中,三分之二的受访者表示,他们觉得自己在中国面临不公平竞争。

German companies believe their products offer superior quality, innovation and technical leadership compared with those made by their Chinese competitors. But increasingly limited access to government officials and regulators have the Germans concerned they will lose out on business that is key to their global success.

德国企业认为,与中国竞争对手相比,他们的产品在质量、创新和领先技术方面更胜一筹。但与政府官员和监管机构接触的机会越来越少,这让德国人担心,他们将失去对其在全球取得成功至关重要的业务。

Mr. Scholz highlighted the role that German companies have played in helping China to grow its economy, in remarks released by the chancellor’s office ahead of his meeting with Mr. Xi on Tuesday.

肖尔茨周二与习近平会晤前发表讲话,强调了德国公司在帮助中国经济增长方面发挥的作用。

“In the past two days, together with a business delegation, I have visited Chongqing and Shanghai and been impressed with how German companies contribute to growth, innovation and sustainability in China,” Mr. Scholz said.

“在过去的两天里,我和一个商业代表团一起访问了重庆和上海,德国公司如何为中国的增长、创新和可持续发展做出贡献,给我留下了深刻印象,”肖尔茨说。

What about fears of Chinese goods flooding Germany?

担心中国商品涌入德国怎么办?

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, expressed concerns last week that Europe remained the last market that was fully open to China. Last fall, the European Union opened an investigation into whether electric vehicles made in China benefited from unfair subsidies, with a decision expected by this summer. She cited Brazil, Turkey and the United States as countries that were pursuing steps that could lead to trade restrictions on Chinese products.

欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩上周表达了这一担忧,称欧洲仍是最后一个对中国全面开放的市场。去年秋天,欧盟对中国制造的电动汽车是否受益于不公平补贴展开了调查,预计将在今年夏天做出决定。她指出,巴西、土耳其和美国等国正在采取可能导致对中国产品实施贸易限制的措施。

Among the executives traveling with Mr. Scholz were the heads of BMW and Mercedes-Benz — Volkswagen’s chief executive pulled out at the last minute, citing a conflict. All three of Germany’s main automakers are heavily invested in China and appear intent on remaining competitive in the market.

与肖尔茨同行的高管中包括宝马和梅赛德斯-奔驰的负责人——大众的首席执行官在最后一刻以日程冲突为由退出。德国三大汽车制造商都在中国大举投资,似乎有意保持在中国市场的竞争力。

“China is the largest automobile market in the world. We are a leading luxury auto maker and we have grown strongly in China and have a strong presence,” Ola Källenius, chief executive of Mercedes-Benz, said in comments to German public broadcaster ARD. “Withdrawing from such a large market is not an option, on the contrary, we are expanding our position here.”

“中国是世界上最大的汽车市场。我们是一家领先的豪华汽车制造商,我们在中国发展强劲,拥有强大的影响力,”梅赛德斯-奔驰首席执行官康松林(Ola Källenius)在接受德国公共广播公司ARD采访时表示。“退出这么大的市场是不可想象的,相反,我们正在扩大我们在这里的地位。”

Representatives of the German auto industry point out that thousands of jobs in Germany depend on the revenue generated in the Chinese market. German auto makers increasingly rely on teams in China for research and development in fields such as automated driving that are not as advanced in Europe.

德国汽车行业的代表指出,德国有成千上万的工作岗位依赖于中国市场产生的收入。德国汽车制造商在自动驾驶等领域的研发越来越依赖中国的团队,欧洲在这些领域并不先进。

During the trip, ministers from both countries signed an agreement to work toward the standardization of autonomous driving technology.

在访问期间,两国部长签署了一项协议,致力于自动驾驶技术的标准化。

“Our guiding principle should always be free trade and competition” Oliver Zipse, chairman of BMW said, naming Japan, Korea and other countries who sell their cars in Europe. “We do not feel threatened by Chinese automakers.”

“我们的指导原则应该永远是自由贸易和竞争,”宝马公司董事长齐普策(Oliver Zipse)说,他提到了日本、韩国和其他在欧洲销售汽车的国家。“我们不觉得中国汽车制造商是威胁。”

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